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This second line of spin was not courageous--or true. The speech had been in the works for a month, and principled slaps at the G.O.P. had been in the earliest versions. Indeed, Bush had been saying similar things in milder terms since summer, calculating that he can chide conservatives and woo moderates without losing his right flank. But he knows the primaries aren't over. The only rival gaining on him is Senator John McCain: in New Hampshire he has picked up 13 points in a month, standing at 23% to Bush's 43% in one poll. But McCain is even more critical of the G.O.P. than Bush, so Bush's words could conceivably help him fend off McCain. Forbes will label Bush a closet tax-and-spend liberal in a massive TV assault set to begin late this year, and Bush is preparing for the attack. Sources told TIME that Bush held focus groups last week in Iowa, South Carolina and New Hampshire, showing gauzy biographical ads as well as mock attacks anticipating what Forbes will throw at him: that Bush is not a real conservative.
Beyond the posturing rivals and professional loudmouths, many conservative leaders secretly are not that concerned about what Bush said last week. They know he has a history of offering moderate rhetoric, then coming down solidly in their camp. Two weeks ago, he opposed a G.O.P. plan to delay tax-credit payments to low-income workers, saying his party's leaders shouldn't "balance their budget on the backs of the poor." But he supported the party's $800 billion tax-cut plan, which would require deep cuts in worthy programs aimed at the same people.
The pattern isn't new. Last year the Texas G.O.P. refused to let the Log Cabin Republicans, a national organization of gay G.O.P. members, set up a booth at the party's convention. Bush spoke out on behalf of the Log Cabin, saying it "should be treated with dignity and respect." But when the Texas legislature considered a hate-crime bill with special penalties for crimes against gays, he opposed it. He promised to veto any bill repealing the state's homosexual-sodomy law, and he supported legislation that would ban gay adoption and even take children away from gay couples who had already adopted them. Even Forbes couldn't get to the right of that.
Now Bush is under the hot lights. He can either return to his old pattern--kind words and cold policies--or offer more of the innovative conservatism his new education proposal represents. Education has always been his best issue, but he needs to build on it. And the old tricks may not win over the moderates he's after.
--With reporting by James Carney and John F. Dickerson/Washington