(3 of 3)
China's primary military aim may be to look and not act muscular, but that hasn't stopped others from wondering under what scenarios Beijing would actually use its muscles. It's a question the Chinese themselves are struggling to answer. To begin with, China is surrounded by several other regional powers: Russia, Japan, South Korea and India. And it has special security worries with each nation. Russia's internal chaos could spill into China's already uneasy Western provinces. An India-Pakistan war--something that didn't look too farfetched as the two nations shelled each other last week--would take place right along China's southwestern border, a nervous-making event for any government.
There are also more nuanced worries that some Chinese planners surely suspect could be clarified if China becomes stronger. Exhibit A is China's complex relationship with Japan. While the two nations have extensive trade and technology links, there is a lingering mutual distrust. In both countries there is a passionate sense that one of them ought to be first among political equals in Asia.
No place is a more likely target for Chinese missiles than Taiwan, which Beijing insists is still its own. Recent discussions between Japan, Taiwan and the U.S. about an antimissile defense network in eastern Asia have infuriated Beijing. Even though such a shield is decades away, a "missile-proof" Taiwan would surely continue--and flaunt--its independence, possibly triggering Asia's next war.
As China's generals are all too aware, the only force that really prevents them from exercising their muscles in Asia is the U.S. And one of Washington's few consistent foreign policy goals since the end of the cold war has been to maintain a major presence in Asia. American bases and security arrangements currently weave a net throughout the region from Okinawa to Diego Garcia. While China's navy can get away with minor adventures--barging around the South China Sea establishing outposts on little atolls is a favorite--there is no doubt that Uncle Sam still rules the waves. If China wants to dominate the region, it will need to unseat the U.S.
Even Jiang Zemin probably isn't sure whether that's a viable goal. To be sure, it would take decades. But just about every military mind in China agrees that China does need to start arming, and soon. This doesn't mean an inevitable cold war with the U.S. The possibility of a world held hostage by the threat of mutual assured destruction is still far away. But no one expects China to put its military ambitions aside anytime soon. In fact, as the country matures, its high-tech military hopes may grow as well. If the Cox report is even partly accurate, China has data that will make it much easier to turn those hopes to reality.
--Reported by William Dowell/New York, Jaime A. FlorCruz/Beijing and Douglas Waller/Washington