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But Kosovo is far and away the worst of the current crises. Vowing not to permit another slaughter like Bosnia's, the NATO allies threatened Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic last June with air strikes unless he halted his security forces' attacks on the rebellious Albanians. Even if Clinton hadn't been bedeviled by scandal, the threat would have been difficult to carry out. France refused to go along with military action unless the U.N. Security Council approved, and Russia promised to veto any resolution that authorized it.
Washington was also stuck in internal wrangling. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright wanted the White House to push harder for NATO military action, but Defense Secretary William Cohen balked, fearing air strikes would only embolden the Kosovo Liberation Army, then at the peak of its strength and demanding an independent state, which Washington opposed. Clinton was too distracted to knock bureaucratic heads or force the allies to carry out their threat. The indecision "proved to be a disaster," says a U.S. diplomat. "Milosevic took the measure of the West and decided he could take advantage of it."
By last month, the Serb leader had turned his counteroffensive against the rebel army into a campaign of terror against Albanian villages. Suddenly, whole sections of the population were being driven from their homes, but the Western response remained inaudible. In part, critics charge that the U.S. tacitly let Milosevic go ahead because the West also wanted to break the back of the rebel army, whose lack of structure threatened regional stability.
The rebel army is largely in disarray, and cocky fighters have had to cede some negotiating power to moderate Kosovo Albanians willing to accept expanded autonomy rather than complete independence. Now the West needs to get Milosevic on board.
So last week the Security Council finally passed a Franco-British resolution demanding that Milosevic halt his offensive and begin negotiations or face the possibility of armed intervention. The attack plan calls for U.S. cruise missiles to be launched first against Serb military targets in Kosovo; then, if needed, NATO would mount a wider air campaign outside Kosovo against security facilities in Serbia.
But bombing Milosevic into submission won't be easy. Russia voted for the U.N. resolution but still adamantly opposes action. France wants a second resolution to approve actual air strikes. Clinton may have to decide whether to go ahead with only fractured allied support. For a President facing possible impeachment hearings, that's a big load to take on. "He won't be able to escape the accusation that he's attacking to divert attention from the scandal," admits an Administration official.
Even if the Administration rouses itself to take charge of the Balkan situation, damage to U.S. foreign policy may have already been done. Allies sense distraction and are growing worried, but are unable to step in. Enemies may see opportunities for making mischief. For rogue leaders like Saddam Hussein and North Korea's Kim Jong Il, the Balkans may convey a different message: Now is the best time to take what they want.
--With reporting by Dejan Anastasijevic/Pristina, Massimo Calabresi/Vienna and Dean Fischer/Washington