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So have the banks been irradiated? One U.S. central banker says no. Financial derivatives during the Asian crisis "worked as expected," said Federal Reserve governor Susan Phillips in a March speech. But that comment may be more a prayer than a conviction. "It's far too early to be handing out Oscars to the banks for how they performed in Asia," says Paul Spraos, publisher of the Swaps Monitor, a derivative newsletter. "It's definitely premature to say the worst of the losses are behind us. These things take time to emerge. "
With Indonesia aflame, a virtual depression in Japan and both Malaysia and Thailand still struggling, the Asian economic crisis is far from over. In the worst- case scenario, one or more large derivatives defaults from Asia and sets off a chain reaction of failures. In the meantime, Howard Greenspan still awaits information to see if his bank will suffer from the fallout. "In the final analysis, this has little to do with Asia," says Greenspan. "It's derivatives themselves. We are into the age of global financial risk."