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A breakthrough for the U.S. came at "the great pipeline shootout" on April 1 in Almaty, capital of Kazakhstan. More than 200 executives and experts from the region's oil consortiums gathered to present and compare their pet plans. To everyone's surprise, Total, the French oil giant, put forward revised numbers for its preferred option, a north-south pipeline through Iran to the gulf. By these new estimates, the Iran link would cost about $4 billion and would not be operational until 2004. This meant the line through Iran would cost as much and take as long to build as the east-west system through Turkey.
This is heartwarming news for the Clinton Administration. Despite the focus on strategic thinking, the final pipeline decision will depend heavily on costs. So U.S. officials were jubilant at Total's confession, and they got another boost last week. In a joint communique with Clinton, Niyazov affirmed that he was leaning toward an east-west gas-and-oil line under the Caspian as part of the larger system the U.S. is pushing. In October the huge consortium based in Baku is to decide which route it will support, and the Clinton Administration believes its side in this Great Game now has the momentum.
--Reported by Scott MacLeod/Tehran, Andrew Meier/Baku and Douglas Waller/Washington