Imagine that Coke Classic told Coca-Cola it wanted to finish its run on top and was quitting, or that Windows announced to Microsoft that after looking deep into its heart, it had decided to move on, and you will get some idea of how Jerry Seinfeld's decision to end his show will affect NBC. Quite simply, the network is a company that is being forced to discontinue one of its most profitable products. NBC made an estimated $500 million last year, and Seinfeld contributed some 40% to that total. The comment of Seinfeld that the show is "about nothing" has often been quoted. Now it really will be about nothing where NBC is concerned, as the accountants replace $200 million with zero. Of course the show will run in syndication for years to come, but the network has no share in those revenues.
The loss of that direct profit is only part of the damage NBC will suffer as a result of Seinfeld's departure. Starting in the early 1980s, the network has dominated Thursday nights with programs like Family Ties, Cheers, The Cosby Show, Hill Street Blues and LA Law. For the past five years, Seinfeld has been the keystone of the network's Thursday lineup, which now includes Friends and ER, two other huge hits. The habit viewers have of watching NBC on Thursdays is one of the network's greatest assets, but with no Seinfeld to watch, the audience may fall into a different routine.
"The whole schedule on Thursday is much more open to attack by other networks," says Harold Vogel, an entertainment-industry analyst for Cowen & Co. All this is bad enough, but NBC also faces the possibility that ER will soon defect to another network. Now that Seinfeld is going, that would be truly calamitous for NBC, so the pressure to keep ER has become exponentially greater.
What's the best show to replace Seinfeld in the 9 p.m. slot on Thursday? Frasier is the most likely candidate. Along with Friends and Mad About You, it is one of NBC's strongest comedies, and it appeals to male viewers, as does Seinfeld. The Cheers spin-off followed Seinfeld when it made its debut in the fall of 1993 and actually attracted more viewers. Right now, it may not be reaching as big an audience as it could, since it goes up against ABC's Home Improvement on Tuesdays.
But a network's schedule is a complicated skein, and pulling one strand may unravel the whole thing. While Frasier has not beaten Home Improvement, it has helped NBC lift its ratings on Tuesdays, a night that has long been dominated by ABC. Moving Frasier would jeopardize that progress. Another possibility would be to put 3rd Rock from the Sun into the Seinfeld time period. This season, NBC moved 3rd Rock from Sunday nights, where it became a hit, to Wednesdays, where it has struggled going head-to-head with ABC's Drew Carey Show. There's still another scenario: moving Friends from 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. on Thursday and filling its old slot with 3rd Rock or Mad About You.