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Whether they will or not is impossible to say. Even if governments ban human cloning outright, it will not be so easy to police what goes on in private laboratories that don't receive public money--or in pirate ones offshore. Years ago, Scottish scientists studying in vitro fertilization were subjected to such intense criticism that they took their work underground, continuing it in seclusion until they had the technology perfected. Presumably, human-cloning researchers could also do their work on the sly, emerging only when they succeed.
Scientists don't pretend to know when that will happen, but some science observers fear it will be soon. The first infant clone could come squalling into the world within seven years according to Arthur Caplan, director of the Center for Bioethics at the University of Pennsylvania. If he's right, science had better get its ethical house in order quickly. In calendar terms, seven years from now is a good way off; in scientific terms, it's tomorrow afternoon.
--Reported by Dick Thompson/Washington, with other bureaus
For more about the ethics of cloning, visit time.com/cloning on the World Wide Web