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Because the primary-election schedule had been purposely compressed so a nominee would be mathematically chosen by the end of March, it was an article of faith among those considering a '96 race that a serious candidate would have to raise at least $20 million by the end of 1995. As Dole moved swiftly to corral those funds, he had an ally in Texas Senator Phil Gramm. By raising nearly as much as Dole in the year before the voting began, Gramm dashed the hopes of other wannabes. Even such G.O.P. heavyweights as "the formers"--James Baker, who had been Secretary of State, and Dick Cheney, who had been Defense Secretary--shied from the challenge because the fund-raising task appeared so daunting.
Gramm imploded quickly, and the others who would make life difficult for Dole--Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes--were perceived as unserious crank candidates, but only eventually. Despite years of practice, Dole still couldn't say why he wanted the presidency or what he would do if he got it. "It's about us," he said. "It's about you. It's about America. It's about the future, which is where we are headed." The candidate seemed oblivious to the disbelief such inanities provoked. After most performances, he said, "You can feel it, can't you? It's working."
The first un-Dole to fly was Steve Forbes, the "fresh face" millionaire publisher and supply-side devotee whose call for a "simple, flat tax" won wide support in the polls. But Dole's alliance with the Christian Coalition--a marriage of convenience, since the group was ideologically closer to Pat Buchanan but wanted most of all to win--paid off in Iowa on Feb. 12, as coalition members followed their leaders and voted for Dole. Forbes was mostly cooked. But then in New Hampshire eight days later, Buchanan upset the party favorite. That loss reflected Dole's inherent weakness despite two years of hard campaigning. The problem was his learning curve: there wasn't any. On the day before the New Hampshire balloting, Dole expressed surprise that "jobs and the economy" would be issues in the race; to which Buchanan asked incredulously, "Where's he been?"