(3 of 4)
These numbers alone suggest that some unscheduled landings are in the offing, especially if the majors are forced to slash their fares on routes where the upstarts are trying to compete. Says David Castelveter, a spokesman for USAir: "If necessary, we respond competitively and aggressively, and we've done that with Southwest, ValuJet and Nations Air, which have visited our markets." Notes Engel: "If the big boys cut their prices, the customers will go there."
There are other ways the established carriers can make life tough for the startups. ValuJet believes it was hoodwinked out of precious landing slots at New York City's LaGuardia Airport by a midnight move on Delta's part. ValuJet thought it had an agreement with TWA to lease 10 slots for $480,000 a year, only to discover that at the last moment Delta swooped in and nabbed them. ValuJet is suing TWA and Delta on antitrust charges. Nations Air Express, which operates out of Atlanta, almost didn't get off the ground when USAir backed out of an agreement to sell the fledgling operator a couple of jets. The reason, says Nations Air president Mark McDonald, is that Nations Air planned to fly into the carrier's fortress hub in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. A USAir spokesman says, "We never had a final agreement to sell them aircraft."
Most first-time passengers on these new carriers are understandably worried about the ability of an airline they have barely or never heard of to move its planes safely from point to point, particularly ones with weird paint jobs. In fact, the upstarts have an excellent safety record, but the stress of operating on true grit and high hopes may be beginning to show. Only last week ValuJet announced it was voluntarily cutting back plans to increase the number of planes in its fleet this year in response to the Federal Aviation Administration's investigation of five nonfatal mishaps involving its aircraft. In two recent incidents a ValuJet plane's landing gear collapsed on touchdown at Nashville, Tennessee, and one of its planes rolled off a runway in Savannah, Georgia.
At the very least, the new kids have added some adventure to flying. A TIME reporter traveling ValuJet from Washington to Atlanta had to wait 90 minutes for her baggage--not an uncommon problem, according to regulars. But consumers tend to be more willing to forgive service inconsistencies when they are saving big bucks in the process. On a recent Air 21 flight from Colorado Springs, Colorado, to Fresno, the Carrs, William, 82, and Virginia, 76, returning from a visit with their children, expressed themselves sold on discount air travel. Their $238 for two round-trip tickets was far less than the $935 they would have been charged by a major carrier. "We may give up the train and keep coming this way," said Mrs. Carr, whose husband is a retired railroad conductor.
Can the upstarts remain profitable by luring the Carrs off the train? A few can, says Michael Boyd, if they stick to their niches and avoid the delusions of grandeur that have led to so many smoldering ruins over the past 18 years. "What kills airlines is rapid growth," Boyd says. "It is not an arithmetic equation. When you go from two planes to four, it's not just doubling the difficulties. It's two to the fourth power in terms of the management requirements to run an airline."