RICHARD HOLBROOKE WAS IN BUDApest last Thursday when he received Secretary of State Warren Christopher's call informing him that he would be returning to Bosnia. After serving as the primary architect of the Dayton peace plan, Holbrooke might be forgiven if he thought his business in the Balkans was finished (he's rumored to be leaving the State Department and returning to Wall Street later this month). But the arrangement was beginning to unravel, and the man who had knit it together in the first place was being summoned to perform some quick-stitch diplomacy.
The crisis that brought Holbrooke scurrying back was sparked by the Bosnian government's arrest of two Bosnian Serb military officers on Jan. 30 in Sarajevo. Although the two are suspected of committing war crimes, their arrest was the third in a series of detentions that in NATO's view may violate the spirit of the Dayton accords. Last week those actions finally provoked an outcry from the Bosnian Serbs, who threatened to cut off all contact with NATO, thus imperiling the pact.
The detentions come at a time when many diplomats have grown concerned about the increasing influence of hard-line Muslims in a Bosnian government that has long pledged itself to a multiethnic state. President Alija Izetbegovic, a devout Muslim who was twice jailed under the communists for his religious activism, has always nurtured an ideal of Bosnia as a secular society that embraces Serb, Croat and Muslim alike. But now his vision is being challenged by a narrowed nationalistic focus.
The government's bellicose posturing is alienating many Serbs who inhabit the suburbs surrounding Sarajevo. Thousands have already left, and others say they will flee when the Muslims assume full control over their neighborhoods on March 20. Such anxiety is only exacerbated by the government's reluctance to pass an amnesty law for Serbs and Croats who fought against the Muslims in the war. The law, which is essential for reconciliation between the rival ethnic camps, failed to pass muster in Bosnia's parliament last month. It will be reviewed this week.
Izetbegovic's ruling Party of Democratic Action (SDA) was founded in 1990 to pursue Muslim interests. Edhem Bicakcic, a member of its most radical wing, is one of the most powerful men in Bosnia and has declared, "The primary interest of the SDA is a state for Bosniacs [a revived term for Bosnian Muslims], which will secure our survival, and not a common life for which the other nations don't show any interest." During the war, the SDA turned to an increasingly despotic style of leadership. It fortified its position by placing party members in important jobs in industry and business, thereby marginalizing Croats and Serbs, who cannot belong to the party. In this way the SDA has set up a communist-style, one-party system of rule.