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So, with Clinton riding high, what happens from here on out? Discipline, Discipline, Discipline. The Clintonites have been studying Ronald Reagan's successful 1984 re-election effort. One lesson: Keep command and control in the White House the way chief of staff Jim Baker did it (deputy chief of staff Harold Ickes is overseeing things from the West Wing). Another lesson: Croon along with Ronnie's song of optimism (the effectiveness of that approach is underscored by candidate Steve Forbes' success). Every week for the next few months, Clinton plans to reprise themes from the State of the Union. This is the Reagan model for staying on message. Says Stephanopoulos: "The President set the tone for the year Tuesday night. Now we have to reinforce, reinforce." Clinton must also avoid lapsing into self-pity, an occupational hazard for late 20th century Presidents, and making gaffes like the one in Texas, when he told a gang of corporate honchos that those tricky Republicans made him raise their taxes.
In the meantime, the President intends to be presidential--another way of saying, Don't let them see you sweat. Clinton won't even try to dominate his Republican rivals. "Whatever's going to be written about the President in the next eight weeks," says Clinton adviser James Carville, "four times that is going to be written about the Republicans. You ain't gonna compete with Iowa and New Hampshire, so you shouldn't even try." As far as a formal announcement of Clinton's re-election bid is concerned, don't expect anything fancy. No red-white-and-blue campaign coming-out party is planned. Being presidential meansbeing above it all; only challengers have to create a splash.
Coloring In the Electoral Map. Clinton's choice last week for his first post--State of the Union jaunt, Kentucky, is a sign of his renewed electoral viability. A year ago, Kentucky's eight electoral votes seemed to go up in smoke after Clinton's proposal to restrict tobacco advertising. But a recent poll shows that Clinton now holds a 6-point lead over Dole in that tobacco-rich state.
Ickes and Doug Sosnik, the White House political director, are already gaming out electoral strategies. The Clinton re-election team expects the critical states to be Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, Louisiana, Missouri, Connecticut and Maine, with the real crunch states being Illinois, Ohio and New Jersey.
O.K., What Could Go Wrong? For one thing, scandal. The drip-drip-drip of revelations about Hillary and Whitewater could undermine Clinton's new era of good feeling. Senator Al D'Amato would like to keep his hearings rumbling through the fall. "I was glad to have the opportunity to tell the grand jury what I have been telling you," Mrs. Clinton said wearily, after testifying for more than four hours before a grand jury last week. It's still an eternity before next November.
The Republicans will regroup. They are already doing so. The Speaker's capitulation this week--his deal on a continuing resolution and hints that he will help raise the debt limit--may mark the end of the G.O.P.'s self-righteous, hard-ball strategy. Even the freshmen know they have been outflanked. Admits first-year Kansas Congressman Sam Brownback: "We probably should have done a better job studying the lessons of history."