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In a word, it's Medicare that did it, though it's a word that stands for a larger worry that Gingrich's ax is flying too fast in all directions. True, most voters are still open to the basic Republican message of smaller government. In the Election Monitor, 50% agree that government did too many things that were better left to businesses or individuals; only 42% think it should do more to solve the country's problems. The problem is that the Republicans have begun to do what they said they would do--cut government--which is bloody in the details. So 60% of the voters surveyed say the G.O.P. is going too far.
And Medicare is one federal program that a sizable majority wants to protect. Asked if they opposed cutting back its growth to balance the budget, 74% are opposed. The Republicans have tried hard to frame their Medicare changes as a means of saving the system, not just trimming the budget or funding their tax cut. For most of the people in the Election Monitor, that message isn't getting through.
"I think there are people out there abusing the system with fraudulent claims," admits Cheryle Begin, 29, of Manchester, New Hampshire, who once worked in a nursing home. What should the politicians do? "Spend more time figuring out the problems with the system rather than cutting back. There are honest people out there and they need it.'' Begin voted for Bush in '92. She's thinking about Clinton for '96. Voters like her are key to the issue likely to dominate the election. Not the hot buttons and silly buttons of recent years: crime, abortion, drugs and flag burning. Instead it will be a basic question: Just who can be trusted to reshape the Federal Government, and how far should that go?
On the Republican side, the race is now Dole's to lose. The Election Monitor shows that Powell's departure simply clinches Dole's hold on the G.O.P. nomination--45% of the Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters questioned--with everyone else a distant second--Gramm, 8%; Buchanan, 6%, and so on.
Even so, the distant seconds were thrilled to see Powell go. Lamar Alexander, who has been limping through New Hampshire with his support in the single digits, rushed forward to claim that the G.O.P. race was now between "insider" Dole and "outsider" Alexander. "In New Hampshire, it's a Dole-and-Buchanan race,'' counters Bay Buchanan, Pat's sister and top aide. "Powell's not there, so we have our liberal, Bob Dole. We have the laser zooming in.'' Texas Senator Phil Gramm went into action on fund raising, which had been in suspended animation while the smart money waited to see if Powell would get in. Says Gramm strategist Charlie Black: "We want people to focus on the fact there are only two candidates who have national resources and a national campaign, Dole and Gramm."
In fact, right now there are only two people in the race: Dole and Clinton. And for the President too, life without Powell is just fine. In a two-man race between Clinton and Powell, voters questioned for the Election Monitor favored the general over the President, 49% to 37%. Make Dole the candidate, however, and Clinton wins handily, 48% to 42%. This is news to chill the blood of any Republican strategist.