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Still, it is not at all obvious that Jiang will ever demonstrate that he has the wisdom and strength to govern China under current conditions. The Communist Party has lost much of its authority among the people, who are convinced, as Deng told them, that "to get rich is glorious." Yet the economy is uneven. It registered 11.8% real growth last year, but the inflation rate peaked above 25%, and more than 40 million people are unemployed, while 100 million others are underemployed. The Chinese feel alienated from the government because of pervasive official corruption and memories of the 1989 suppression of the pro-democracy movement. If the communists are to maintain stability after Deng dies--if they are to ride the tiger, as they put it--then the leadership must find a new way to inspire loyalty and cooperation from the mass of ordinary Chinese citizens.
To meet that challenge, a collective leadership has been formed, with Jiang as "the core," as Deng himself put it. But once Deng is gone, rivals within the group can be expected to go gunning for Jiang, and he will have to fight to stay on top. Many China experts predict that Jiang will not prevail in an all-out test of strength. The affable apparatchik has been nicknamed Weather Vane because he tends to swing with the prevailing political wind.
Jiang joined the Communist Party in his teens. An electrical engineer, he worked as a factory administrator for 25 years. In the early 1970s he rose through the ranks in several economic agencies and headed the Ministry of the Electronics Industry before becoming mayor of Shanghai in 1985 and party chief in 1989. Last May he attended V-E day ceremonies with 50 other world leaders in Moscow and in July enjoyed a state visit to Germany. On such occasions he is an enthusiastic guest, smiling, shaking hands, chatting in one of his three foreign languages (Russian, Romanian and English), reciting T'ang-dynasty poetry and even quoting lines from the U.S. Declaration of Independence.
JIANG WATCHERS IN BEIJING GIVE him more credit for resourcefulness than many foreigners do. "He has had more than five years to build a power base and has done that methodically," says a Chinese official. Jiang has advanced his supporters from Shanghai inside the central and regional leaderships and has reshuffled the hierarchies of several provinces to replace old-timers with his own people. He has put close military and police associates into key positions, visited army bases around the country and promoted 19 new generals. He makes so many public appearances that he seems to be campaigning for the jobs he already holds.
If there is one likely future challenger to Jiang it is Qiao Shi, 71, chairman of the National People's Congress and a member of the Politburo's inner standing committee. Though the Congress has always been a rubber stamp for the party, Qiao is making a serious effort to turn it into a functioning legislature--and in the process use it as a power base. Some experts believe Qiao has liberalizing tendencies.