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Now Tudjman is trying to get it back. In May he seized an area known as Western Slavonia (in the eastern part of Croatia) with ease from rebel Serbs, and if he wins back Krajina, Croatia's borders will be largely restored. What the consequences of this effort will be depends on Tudjman's own shrewdness and on the reaction of Milosevic. Right now the Serbian President appears exceedingly disinclined to enter the war on the side of his embattled brethren. The rebel Serb causes in Croatia and Bosnia have recently fallen from his protective grace as Milosevic has concentrated on negotiating an end to the U.N. sanctions that have been strangling his economy for the past three years.
If Milosevic does not come to the Serbs' aid, and if Tudjman is satisfied with retaking Krajina, the chances for peace in the region might actually be improved. A demonstrably strong Croatia could act as a counterweight to Serbia; a defeat for the Serbs might make them more amenable to negotiation; and a reintegrated Krajina would no longer be a source of instability. As American and European diplomats point out, the map looks much simpler with Krajina in Croat hands, the isolated eastern enclaves in Serb hands and some sort of Bosnia in the middle, making the way to a settlement clearer.
But Milosevic may not be able to stay aloof, and Tudjman may reach for too much. If the situation of the Krajina Serbs becomes truly dire, nationalists in Serbia will press Milosevic to act. "I don't expect Milosevic to come to the rescue of the Krajina Serbs unless there is a barbaric massacre or the blowing up of churches by the Croats," says one State Department official. "That would put him under tremendous pressure." Thousands of refugees now pouring into Serb-held lands in Bosnia could also provoke sympathetic outrage in Serbia.
Milosevic's silence up to now has fueled speculation that the two Presidents may have crafted a secret deal, allowing the Croatians to attack Krajina so long as they leave the Serbs in eastern Croatia alone. But Tudjman covets other regions in Croatia, and if he tries to seize those, he is sure to provoke Milosevic. All-out war would almost certainly follow, for example, if the offensive were to spill into the oil-rich and agriculturally prized region of Eastern Slavonia, which is now occupied by Croatian Serbs. Tudjman is tough and shrewd, but he has misjudged Milosevic before.
As for the Bosnian Muslims, they have been expressing quiet glee at the unusual spectacle of Serbs suffering bombardment. But the Bosnians' cooperation with the Croatians may be short-lived. Catholic Croatia and Orthodox Serbia have long harbored the desire to divide Bosnia between themselves, and Bosnia's recent partnership with the Croats does not change its vulnerability. Indeed, some fear that a successful Tudjman might begin divvying up Bosnia with Milosevic. "Every government acts only in its own interest," said one Bosnian government official, who predicts that once Croatia has what it wants, it will eagerly turn to the task of carving up its newest ally. If so, that would be honoring a centuries-old Balkan tradition.
--Reported by Edward Barnes/Sisak, Jay Branegan/Brussels, Massimo Calabresi/Vienna, Dean Fischer/Washington, Tala Skari/Paris, Alexandra Stiglmayer/Zagreb and Bruce van Voorst/Bonn