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At the NATO ministerial meeting in the Netherlands last Tuesday, Secretary of State Warren Christopher told his counterparts the U.S. was ready to provide heavy equipment and communications gear to help the peacekeepers "regroup" into six or so defensible enclaves. Meanwhile in Washington National Security Adviser Anthony Lake had sent a memo to the President, and Perry made an impassioned presentation in person to Clinton, who has not been deeply involved or very interested in Bosnia policy. They succeeded in convincing him that if British or French troops were endangered or bogged down during the regrouping, the U.S. should be ready to help, even by putting troops on the ground.
Clinton chose the Air Force Academy's graduation ceremony in Colorado on Wednesday to explain what was going on: "We have obligations to our NATO allies, and I do not believe we can leave them in the lurch." Briefers tried to explain the offer as simply an extension of previous policy, but that did not sell on Capitol Hill, where most leaders opposed it. By week's end the Administration was emphasizing that it had agreed only to consider seriously any such requests that might come from its European allies. Privately, many officials were hoping the Europeans would not take them up on the offer. As he headed off to Paris, Perry said, "We don't expect to be asked, and we are not planning to do it."
Military planners have only begun to determine the form of the reconfiguration. Presumably the troops will concentrate in the existing "safe areas" -- Sarajevo, plus the enclaves of Bihac, Tuzla, Zepa, Gorazde and Srebrenica. But the last three, in eastern Bosnia, are so isolated and tightly surrounded by Serbs that it might not be feasible to turn them into mini-fortresses. Even so, their guardians can hardly just walk away, leaving the Muslims seeking refuge there to face another round of "ethnic cleansing." It does seem likely, though, that U.N. soldiers will have to abandon the scattered collection depots around the Bosnian capital where they have been guarding tanks and artillery that the Serbs turned over near the safe areas. Similarly, UNPROFOR, the multinational U.N. Protection Force, would probably have to close down many small observation posts around the country.
The Western military presence is to be reinforced and reconfigured to make it stronger. But stronger for what? If UNPROFOR shifts its focus to protecting itself, pulling back into defended strongpoints to be less vulnerable, it will be unable to escort relief convoys along mountain roads and into the isolated valleys of Bosnia, which was its original purpose. If, on the other hand, the reinforced peacekeepers roll out in strength, ready to smash through Serb roadblocks to deliver aid, the Serbs will treat them as non-neutral combatants, and they will join in the war -- without enough strength to win. It has already become almost impossible for the peacekeepers to carry out their impartial, humanitarian mandate; the latest plan may make the contradictions of their mission even less easy to reconcile.