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As the nomination battle intensified, the party seemed to be on the verge of imploding. ``If we can't have victory, at least give us back our dignity, our principles, our sense of duty, and stop the massacre,'' implored Rocard on the front page of Le Monde. Former Environment Minister Segolene Royal, 41, a rising star, warned shrilly of ``two trains hurtling toward each other at top speed'' and resigned as president of the Socialists' national committee in protest against the bitter infighting. Mitterrand tried to calm the waters by saying he would be hard pressed to choose between his ``two longtime companions''--though aides later indicated he preferred Emmanuelli.
In fact, Mitterrand is a big part of the Socialists' problem. His 14 years in power have left the voters yearning for change, a disaffection that has rubbed off on the party. His second seven-year term has been rocked by financial scandals, many involving close friends and associates, and by revelations of his onetime flirtation with the far right. His illness--he has cancer of the prostate--has left a virtual power vacuum that has allowed Balladur to expand his role and stature. Finally, the Socialists are paying the price for Mitterrand's incessant political scheming, which led him to pit potential successors against one another instead of anointing an heir apparent.
``Mitterrand refused to choose,'' says Sorbonne University professor Olivier Duhamel. ``He thought he alone could carry the left, and that the failure of the Socialists would be another proof of his genius.'' Others argue that the Socialist Party, formed in 1971 as an electoral vehicle for Mitterrand, has outlived its usefulness. ``The party has no more raison d'etre,'' says Rocard adviser Guy Carcassonne. ``Until another leader comes along who can mold it in his image, it will be in a disastrous state.''
While it is doubtful the lackluster Jospin can play that role, he did surprise many observers by getting 65.8% of his fellow party members to buck the wishes of the apparatchiks and vote for him in the Feb. 4 primary. ``The party machine has been discredited,'' says Roland Cayrol, president of the CSA polling organization. ``The rank and file showed that they can decide things for themselves without taking orders.'' The result, he adds, ``is a real blow to Fabius,'' who plans to run in 2002 and wanted to eliminate Jospin as a potential rival.
Jospin's choice was also bad news for Jacques Chirac. The Paris mayor, a Gaullist, hopes to face Balladur in the runoff and pick up enough leftist votes to close the gap. Jospin's post-nomination bump in the polls put him neck and neck with Chirac in one survey and two points ahead in another, threatening to eliminate the conservative in the first round.
Not that there was much danger of a Socialist victory. Barring some Balladur misstep, most analysts predict Jospin will have to fight hard to win 45% in the second round. ``I think the election is already played out,'' says Jean-Luc Parodi, a polling expert and professor at Paris' Institute of Political Studies. ``Balladur is already elected in people's minds. For him, the real challenge will come after the election. His honeymoon is already behind him.''