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Now that Raul is taking the lead on economic policy, "he is once again a serious political player," says Gillian Gunn, head of Georgetown University's Cuba Project. Raul personally replaced half the Communist Party's first secretaries in the provinces this summer with young, pro-army party men. "To the average Cuban it looks like Raul has taken over, with Fidel held for special occasions, public relations and international events," says a party member. Some political analysts in Havana even talk of Fidel becoming a figurehead and letting others carry out reforms the staunch communist finds repugnant. Of course, with Raul spearheading the changes, Fidel is better insulated if they fail.
Washington's reaction is cautious. Castro's little brother is a committed communist, not a free marketeer or democrat. The U.S. has demanded that Cuba enact political as well as economic reforms before lifting the 32-year-old trade embargo. Raul's technical fixes have so far been accompanied by increased repression of political dissidents. According to the Pentagon, a post-Castro Cuba cannot be truly capitalistic and democratic if the military is ingrained in the economy. But as other communist governments have learned, economic reforms often create a market for democracy. Raul and his generals may yet discover how difficult it is to run a capitalistic dictatorship.