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In part, the highly visible and carefully choreographed mobilization is designed to make the threat of invasion so real that the real invasion will not be necessary. Its assertive rhetoric notwithstanding, the White House still fervently hopes the junta will believe the warnings and voluntarily call it quits. Late last week some Administration officials suggested that Cedras and his cronies may finally be realizing the seriousness of their predicament. Asked to describe evidence for this, a White House aide refused to elaborate but hinted that recent intelligence reports indicated a shift in tone among the Haitian leaders based on "how they are talking among themselves." In Port-au-Prince, a Haitian political analyst scoffed at the idea. "There has been too much bluffing, too many mixed signals in the history of this crisis," he said, "to believe the Clinton Administration is really serious about ending this."
While the beating of war drums is intended to intimidate Haiti's leaders, it is also meant to prepare the two groups Clinton must enlist before sending U.S. troops into battle: Congress and the American people. To convince the country that returning Aristide to power is worth spilling American blood, advisers told Clinton he needs to spell out the U.S. vital interests at stake, preferably in a TV speech this week.
A top official laid out four basic points Clinton would make. First, he would stress -- without a trace of irony -- that the U.S. must follow through on its repeated public threats of invasion to preserve "American credibility." Second, Clinton would lay out human-rights abuses in Haiti. "Bodies are found every day in gullies," said the official. The President will make it clear that "there is a different standard for savagery next door than brutality on the other side of town."
Then Clinton would explain that he has exhausted all peaceful means of resolving the conflict. The U.S. has tried -- and failed -- to dislodge the junta through negotiations and through economic sanctions whose effect on the Haitian poor now borders "on cruelty." Finally, the official said, the President would argue that the U.S. can no longer accept a situation in Haiti & that contributes to the disastrous explosion of refugees from the Caribbean.
While Clinton realizes he needs to court public support, he does not intend to seek explicit congressional approval. Lawmakers do not seem sufficiently united to block an invasion, but Republicans can be counted on to criticize the President. They are already charging that an invasion is just a political stunt timed to boost the Democrats' sagging electoral fortunes. In fact what most Congressmen really want, says a Capitol Hill staff member, "is to be consulted, but let Clinton take the heat." Beginning Monday, the Administration's national-security officials will launch a sortie on Capitol Hill to brief key lawmakers.