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But even such battle-hardened successes do not assure victory for AmEx in its quest to reclaim the top standing it lost in 1989 in the $562 billion credit-card industry. The U.S. market is saturated with 1 billion pieces of plastic, issued by 6,500 companies. "Industry competition has turned into quite a fray," says Mark Tonnesen, president of credit-card services for Bank One in Columbus, Ohio. "The winner in all of this is the consumer." Even AmEx's Skillern acknowledges that "the world probably doesn't need a new credit card," though he remains confident that "consumers will welcome a new series of value propositions." (That's industry-speak for such card bonuses as the frequent-flyer miles and discount phone calls that have proliferated over the past decade.)
The competition has grown so fierce for two reasons: the pool of potential new customers is shrinking at the same time America's plastic habit is growing. Since 1984, outstanding charges rung up on bank cards have swollen from $53 billion to $239 billion. "At some banks, 50% to 60% of their equity is based on the credit-card business," says industry watchdog McKinley. Analysts say that although no more than 20% of all purchases are currently made with plastic, the possibilities for growth are enormous. Some card vendors have already moved into such traditional cash domains as movie theaters and supermarkets; others are exploring fast-food chains, government agencies and health-care establishments.
AmEx's future may lie in yet another direction. Last week Business Week reported that General Electric is exploring a takeover of AmEx; both companies deny the report. Meanwhile, AmEx's best hope for luring away clients from scrappier competitors may be its formidable electronic data base, which enables the company to develop extensive customer profiles. By zeroing in on people's purchasing habits, AmEx can enclose targeted discount offers in its monthly billings that encourage clients to ring up more charges on their cards. And who knows? Perhaps the back-to-values '90s still have room for some '80s-style snootiness. Maybe Baryshnikov shops at K Mart.