(5 of 5)
Ironically, Colosio's murder may have given the ruling party a boost. His candidacy had not caught fire, and his image suffered by comparison with Camacho's. Now the fallen Colosio is being elevated to martyrdom, with supporters in his home state calling his death "Sonora's version of the John F. Kennedy assassination." Mourners gathered in the giant square in front of party headquarters in Mexico City, carrying banners with Colosio's name. "Justice! Justice!" they cried. Now the party may reap a sympathy vote. "Yesterday," declared Reforma columnist Raymundo Riva Palacio the day after the assassination, "the P.R.I. won the election."
More than sympathy, of course, the party symbolizes stability to an unsettled society. "The P.R.I. will be stronger," says Delal Baer, a specialist on Mexico at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "In times of trouble, people seek refuge in what they know. They will turn to the P.R.I., with all its warts and flaws."
Baer also believes that Mexicans fear the violence they see around them and will work hard to submerge it. "They are afraid of themselves," she says, "so they are going to control themselves." If the country is to retain the confidence of overseas investors -- mainly American -- who provide the capital essential for growth, it must demonstrate its ability to maintain stability. L. Kip Smith, president of the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico, says that will happen because of "the foundation that has been built, the spirit of the people, the desire for progress." More concretely, David West, a U.S. consultant, says, "The market is still here. The labor pool is still here."
Investors and other businessmen naturally want to see the P.R.I. candidate, whoever it is, win on Aug. 21. That will mean the ratification and continuation of Salinas' free-market policies. But the real test of Mexico's political maturity may be how free and honest the election turns out to be -- how few the charges of vote rigging are -- no matter who wins. That will measure how deeply democratic institutions have taken root.