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As a cover for their inaction, leaders in London and Dublin blame the impasse on bloody-minded political attitudes in the North. But they also have a point. Politicians in Ulster constantly plead for peace but have shown themselves incapable of making the kind of bold moves that broke the logjam in South Africa and the Middle East. In the North "there are no autonomous political leaders strong enough to carry their followers along the road to compromise," explains Brendan O'Leary, a political scientist at the London School of Economics. "The politicians are very representative of the hard lines in their communities." Many Catholics -- and even some elements in the I.R.A. -- have moved away from their demand for unconditional British withdrawal and full union with the South. But Catholics in the North insist upon a plan that would protect their rights and link them in some way with the Republic. And there's the rub, since Protestant leaders still cling to their belief that the province's union with Britain is immutable.
The latest cycle of killings is unlikely to change much except perhaps to increase the bitterness and intensify the violence. Last week Major and Irish Prime Minister Albert Reynolds took time off from an E.C. summit in Brussels to discuss the crisis privately, and agreed on the urgency of continuing talks on the future of Ulster. They concurred that all parties, including the I.R.A. and Protestant terrorist groups, could take part in negotiations if they ceased their terror campaigns. Before the Shankill bombing, John Hume, M.P. from Ulster, and Gerry Adams, head of Sinn Fein, the political wing of the I.R.A., had been discussing a new agenda for a peace plan. That was an indication that perhaps the I.R.A. had had enough of the killing game. But when Adams appeared as a pallbearer at bomber Begley's funeral, optimism faded. It now looks very much as if the killers are back in the driver's seat, and the road ahead is as murky as ever.