And the 51st state of the union will be . . . Puerto Rico? To most Americans, the idea seems highly implausible. In a new TIME/CNN poll, only 48% of those surveyed are aware that the island enjoys an unusual arrangement with the U.S. called commonwealth. Meanwhile just 21% of mainlanders say Puerto Rico should become a state, 24% think it should become a separate country, and 32% prefer the status quo. The social and economic statistics are daunting too. Absorbing the impoverished island 1,000 miles southeast of Miami and its 3.7 million people -- only half of whom speak English -- would cost billions in additional federal welfare benefits.
Still, the idea of statehood marches forward and is even gathering momentum. Both the Democratic and Republican parties and all recent Presidents have endorsed the island's right to determine its own political fate. And to a growing number of Puerto Ricans that looks more and more like complete union with the mainland -- especially with the rigorous pro-statehood push from the , island's popular new Governor, Dr. Pedro Rossello. The former pediatric surgeon has detonated an intense debate by engineering a plebiscite, scheduled for a week from Sunday, on the island's future. A pro-statehood vote would pressure the U.S. Congress to accept or reject Puerto Rico -- a decision most mainland representatives would rather avoid.
Three choices appear on the ballot: petition Congress to become the 51st state, seek to become an independent republic, or continue the present ambiguous commonwealth relationship. When islanders last voted on their status, in 1967, commonwealth bested statehood 60% to 39%, and independentistas boycotted the event. Opinion has subsequently shifted, although consensus remains elusive. Surveys by Rossello's New Progressive Party indicate that statehood will attract about 50%, with commonwealth very close behind and independence a distant third.
One reason for the change is Rossello's popularity. He ran a dynamic campaign last year, promising fundamental reform of education, health care and government bureaucracy. Another reason is that over the decades Puerto Rico has become increasingly dependent on federal assistance, ranging from food stamps to education grants. Suggestions that the island move away from the U.S. raise concern that these benefits might end.
Historically, statehood was favored mostly by the island's light-skinned upper class, which feared the radical instincts of nationalists and the New Deal proclivities of the Popular Democratic Party. The Populares negotiated the commonwealth system with Washington 41 years ago, and continue to support the arrangement. Now, in the impoverished mountain barrio of Cubuy, once a Populares bastion, Jesus Colon, 64, tells a visitor: "I had great feeling for independence when I was a kid. But I lived in New York for 22 years and learned what the U.S. is really like. I tell all my relatives the best thing that could happen to us would be statehood." His neighbor Nathaniel Calderon, 44, who fought in Vietnam and recently retired from the Army, agrees. "Today," says Calderon, "we are Americans, but separated."