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At a time when Egypt's employment is shrinking, prices are rising, housing is dwindling and the population of 58 million is increasing by 1 million every nine months, the sheik's vision of an Islamic future appeals to many. His exhortations against the Mubarak regime, which he attacks for "spreading vice and immorality" and "trying to eradicate Islamic values," play particularly well to younger audiences. At Cairo University's Dar al Ulum college of education, the vast majority of students embrace Islam, but few seem to endorse the violent methods employed by Al Jama'a. Nonetheless, a student notes, "there should be more of a dialogue between the fundamentalists and the government." That day seems far off. In the wake of the Trade Center explosion, Mubarak told the Washington Post that he rules out further political liberalization. "There will be some ups and downs" in the activities of fundamentalists, predicted Mubarak. "But it will not increase more than that. I think they have reached the maximum." If attacks against tourists continue, he added, "I'll be very strict with them."
At the moment, the government does not recognize any political parties based on religion. Mubarak has hardened his suspicions about such self-styled moderate Islamic groups as the Muslim Brotherhood. And both sides have learned lessons from the military coup that followed the 1992 legislative election victory of fundamentalists in Algeria. Islamists have concluded that attempts to achieve political reform through democratic processes are meaningless; the government fears that political recognition of religious-based parties will further polarize the situation.
The result is a vicious standoff. Islamic groups, of which Sheik Omar's is just one of many, have accelerated their attacks on security forces and Coptic Christians, as well as tourist sites. Last year 80 people were killed and 130 wounded. Al Jama'a, which is believed to operate in small cells, has claimed responsibility for most of the 20 tourist attacks. In addition to the cafe attack, one Briton has been killed and five Germans wounded. Revenues from tourism, which were expected to total $4 billion this year, have been cut in half.
The government has answered with a massive security crackdown on fundamentalists in Cairo and other cities. In December Mubarak ordered 14,000 police and 100 armored personnel carriers to sweep Imbaba, a Cairo neighborhood known to be a sanctuary for extremists. Hundreds of fundamentalists were arrested. Still, the antigovernment attacks continue. Authorities now worry about the proliferation of small terrorist groups; diplomats fret about ham-fisted tactics. "The danger," warns an envoy, "is that fundamentalists may attain a level of faith that invites martyrdom."
Egypt is hardly alone in contending with a rebirth of Muslim fundamentalism. A tide of religious fervor has been sweeping across the Islamic belt, threatening to turn half a dozen countries into theocratic states akin to Iran, Sudan and Afghanistan. Terrorism, intolerance and revolution for export are some of the by-products. In their drive for cultural ascendancy, Islamists have found fertile ground in denouncing Western values -- and inspiring violent assaults.