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The Khmer Rouge have expanded their areas of influence since Paris. Their intransigence is clearly visible in Kompong Thom province, on the northeastern shore of the Great Lake, one of the most tense regions in the country. Last July three U.N. military observers were based in the village of Kraya, where the Khmer Rouge were infiltrating men and supplies down from Thailand. The local Khmer Rouge commander, General Men Ron, told the observers to "get out or I will kill you." The three men were withdrawn and did not return to Kraya until the end of September. Since then, Men Ron has refused to discuss any problems with them, always answering, "There are Vietnamese in the country. I will not deal with UNTAC." The Khmer Rouge have detained UNTAC observers on three occasions.
Khmer Rouge patrols have also been entering villages nominally controlled by Hun Sen's administration, tearing down election posters and confiscating radios. Recently, Khmer Rouge cadres in one district made villagers hand over their registration cards and cut them in two, keeping the half bearing the name. The message was terrifyingly clear. Still, U.N. observers believe the Khmer Rouge to be a much weaker force than generally assumed -- capable of terrorism but unable to mount large-scale assaults.
The animosity among the factions is evident in the Supreme National Council. Meetings have not been easy, and Sihanouk, in poor health, has become weary. For the past few weeks he has been in Beijing complaining about the behavior of some of the factions. He has warned that unless both Hun Sen and UNTAC act vigorously "against the poisoning of the political atmosphere, social injustice and political terrorism," he will stop cooperating with them.
Some commentators have already written off UNTAC. They argue that the Paris agreement as such is dead, that UNTAC has failed to create secure conditions for elections, that too little has been done to de-mine the country and that there has been virtually no progress in economic rehabilitation. Donors pledged $880 million for Cambodia at a conference in Tokyo in June, but almost none of the money has arrived. If the economy functions at all, it is because Cambodia is still a country of subsistence farmers and fishermen.
But UNTAC also has notable achievements. The electoral process is, so far, a remarkable success. The human-rights component is spreading important ideas. The original mission of the U.N. troops, to monitor the demobilization and disarming of the factions, has been abandoned, but some of the soldiers are bringing public health and other services to villagers. The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees has been much more successful than expected in repatriating most of the 350,000 Cambodian refugees from along the Thai border.
If, despite the growing threats from the Khmer Rouge and Hun Sen's regime, the election can be brought off in most of the country, UNTAC will have given Cambodians a chance to move toward more representative government. The best outcome would appear to be a coalition between Hun Sen and the anticommunists under the state presidency of Prince Sihanouk. Some UNTAC officials suggest the inclusion of one or two Khmer Rouge in the interests of achieving real "national reconciliation."