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The hard laws of economic life also decree that in the 21st century, the rich will generally get richer and the poor poorer. In order to rise to a level of prosperity, a developing country must achieve decades of high growth rates while simultaneously holding its population stable. Few will be able to manage that trick successfully. India in 2025, for example, will have 1.4 billion people. By 2050 the world's population is likely to have surged from the present 5.5 billion to 11 billion, and its production of goods and services will have quadrupled. But almost all the population increase is projected for the less-developed countries, while most of the increased output will occur in the industrial democracies.
Moreover, developed countries are already buying less from the Third World and more from one another. Even now, trading by the three main economic regions -- Europe, North America and the Pacific Rim -- accounts for 75% of the world's total. Over the past decade, 20 of the world's 24 largest industrial powers have signed bilateral agreements that regulate their trade and set up new barriers to imports.
If the dynamics of the 21st century produce a gloomy outlook for the poorest countries, the most bothersome question facing much of the world is about the fate of the U.S. There is no doubt, of course, that America will be a major player on the world scene. Its military power, its 20% share of the world's gross national product and its mastery of such cutting-edge fields as biotechnology, microprocessors and information technologies guarantee that. It will bestride the North American Free Trade Agreement like a colossus.
But serious worries shadow the U.S. future. The country has run a $1 trillion trade deficit over the past 10 years, and its national debt is more than $4 trillion. One day the U.S. will have to pay those bills. And the only way it can do so is to stop devouring the products of other nations, put more of its wealth into investment at home and greatly expand its exports.
Aside from the skewed balance sheets, there are serious doubts about the country's intrinsic health. Its educational system is in crisis, its industries faltering, its investment in itself too meager. "In a world whose workers require ever more basic education, technological savvy and specialized skill," Marvin Cetron and Owen Davies write in their book Crystal Globe, "America's schools are the least successful in the Western world." Says ! Brookings' Steinbruner: "There's no way of overcoming disparity in economic fortune without overcoming the disparity in education." U.S. spending on civilian research and development is 10th in the world, a level that M.I.T.'s Thurow estimates will "eventually lead to a secondary position for American science and engineering and lower rates of growth in productivity."