Dan Quayle and Al Gore would seem to have much in common. They are of the same generation, born a year apart to influential families that carefully nursed their sons' political careers. Each won his first election to the House in 1976, where they played basketball together in the members' gym, and quickly moved up to the Senate. Each is handsome, in his way, and boasts an attractive young family with a wife more conservative than he. Both ran bumbling campaigns in 1988 and were criticized as weak and wooden public speakers.
Gore, however, has grown in political skill and public approval, while Quayle has not -- as both men demonstrated vividly last week. Campaigning arm in arm with Democratic presidential nominee Bill Clinton on a triumphant bus tour that attracted enthusiastic crowds through the Midwest, Gore managed to excite voters as he seldom did during the 1988 primaries. He deftly fielded questions, deferred to Clinton, turned back attacks from the Bush campaign and provided a remarkably effective complement to his running mate's considerable campaign skills. "Both of the Democratic candidates are young and smart," grumbled a depressed Bush-Quayle campaign official, "and we've only got one of each."
That was typical of the daggers flung at Quayle's back during one of the most bruising weeks of his embattled tenure. Desperate to do something dramatic to reverse Clinton's 2-to-1 lead over Bush in the polls, many Republicans last week stepped up their calls to dump Quayle. No sooner had Bush publicly stated that Quayle's spot on the ticket was "very certain" than the Vice President handed fresh ammunition to his critics. Asked by CNN'S Larry King what he would do if his daughter, now 13, were grown and had an unwanted pregnancy, Quayle replied that he "would counsel her and talk to her and support her on whatever decision she made." That seemed to leave open the option of abortion for her, though the Vice President and his party officially - oppose that choice for other women.
In a TIME/CNN survey conducted by Yankelovich Clancy Shulman last week, 1 of 4 respondents said Quayle's presence would make them less likely to vote for the Republican ticket, while 2 of 5 said the Gore candidacy would make them more likely to vote for Clinton. Though vice-presidential preferences have had little predictive value in past elections, some strategists in both parties think this year may prove an exception. Democrats sense an unexpected synergy between Clinton and Gore. Television images of the two fortysomething men calling for change "help us make our case that it's the new against the old," says Clinton strategist James Carville. Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin says if voters are closely divided between Bush and Clinton in November, the Quayle-Gore mismatch "has the potential to be a scale tipper in favor of the Democrats."
Some G.O.P. officials are in agreement, citing new polls showing that even among Republicans, a solid majority prefer Gore over Quayle. "This is not a Washington Beltway phenomenon," warns a senior Bush aide. "We're hearing from Republicans all over the country who are afraid that the campaign is going to be too close this time, and that Quayle might cost us the few points that decide the election."