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By now the movement has begun feeding on itself. In the former Soviet Union, for example, the success of Latvians, Ukrainians, Armenians, Georgians and Tajik, among others, in breaking free from Moscow has encouraged separatist movements inside Russia. Tatars, Chechen, Ingush and Yakut are demanding either greater autonomy within the Russian Federation or full independence. In many areas, though, ethnic groups are so thoroughly mixed that it is impossible to draw neat border lines between their respective turfs. Any attempt to do so only creates new minority problems: a Serb minority in Croatia, for example, instead of a Croat minority in a Serb-dominated Yugoslavia. That leads at best to severe tensions, at worst to savage wars between peoples who once lived in peace.
Yugoslavia, says a U.S. State Department official, is the horrible example of "self-determination gone mad." He and others accuse Serbia of adopting a poisonous nationalism that demands ethnic purity at home, enforced by deporting "foreigners" if necessary, and conquest of any lands -- portions ) of Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, for example -- to which one's brethren have migrated. Once that spirit takes hold, says the official, "anything becomes justifiable in the name of your kind: expulsion, devastation, murder."
Yugoslavia also provides an example of how badly the international community has been fumbling in managing self-determination. The U.S. and the European Community tried to keep the so-called nation together long after that had become impossible. Then they split over whether to recognize the independence of Slovenia and Croatia. The U.N. sent peacekeeping forces far too late and, by making clear that it would not allow its soldiers to become involved in any fighting, effectively signaled Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic that nobody would seriously try to stop his efforts to create a Greater Serbia.
But then how should the international community cope with a trend that is both irresistible and extremely dangerous? Thoughtful diplomats and academic analysts offer four general guidelines:
1) Do whatever is possible through preachment, aid and sanctions to encourage the spread of democracy. The most destructive ethnic explosions usually have occurred under repressive regimes. In contrast, secession movements in Quebec and Scotland have generally concentrated on peaceful persuasion. Democratic Canada and Britain have given Quebecois and Scots nonviolent ways in which to voice their angers and aspirations.
2) Grant a large measure of self-government to dissident ethnic groups. Democracy alone may not satisfy ethnics who suspect that their representatives in a national legislature will be constantly outvoted on such matters as where and how tax money should be spent. The presence of 22 Kurds out of a total of 450 members in the Turkish parliament has not prevented Kurdish terrorists seeking autonomy from turning southeastern Turkey into a land of fear.