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Policing a cease-fire, however, depended on gaining a cease-fire, chances for which were going up in smoke. Ultimately, the WEU was asked to "study" how to improve protection of the 200 unarmed E.C. civilian monitors already in Yugoslavia. The union is in a poor position to do more: it has no military command structure or troops at its disposal. Any West European force that might intervene would surely consist of British and French troops in the main, supported by NATO logistics.
Washington still insisted late last week that it was sticking by the E.C.'s leadership in exploring peace options. But Britain remained opposed to sending peacekeepers without a peace to keep. Unless all of Yugoslavia's factions invite such a force, said British Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd, an "open- ended commitment" is doomed. Hurd argued for economic sanctions, perhaps an oil embargo.
Would the U.N. commit troops instead, then? Though France would welcome such a move, it was not optimistic. An outside chance was that the U.N. would act by choosing to see Croatia as a discrete nation being invaded. Yet Germany's threat to recognize Croatia and Slovenia -- a threat Bonn dropped two weeks ago -- has been the biggest sticking point in Europe's handling of the crisis. Among other things, Britain fears emboldening other ethnic separatists such as restive Slovaks in Czechoslovakia and Basques in Spain.
Dutch Foreign Minister Hans van den Broek, the E.C. President, condemned the idea outright last week. In acid remarks clearly aimed at Genscher, Van den Broek said, "It is easy from behind a desk to recognize Slovenia and Croatia and leave the rest of the work aside." According to Dutch officials, moreover, their government moved to call the WEU meeting only to force gun-shy Bonn "to put up or shut up" on the proposal to commit troops. About Genscher, a British diplomat cracked, "In his pursuit of the Nobel Peace Prize, he has been grossly irresponsible." Britain and France expect that 30,000 to 40,000 troops would be required to keep Yugoslavia's combatants apart.
Yet hopes for anything short of intervention were not good. Susan Woodward, a fellow at Washington's Brookings Institution, criticized the E.C. for waiting too long. The storm has been gathering for months, she notes, but only when fighting broke out in June did the Community attempt to set up a peace conference. Mitterrand said in Germany last week he did "not see it as the end of human progress if we reconstitute the Europe of tribes." But would tribal Europe, starting in the Balkans, overtake and drown the tolerant Europe of ideas?