Public Opinion: Vaulting over Political Polls

A Texas political scientist is creating a new form of voter sampling, with results to appear on PBS nationwide

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Sound farfetched, the kind of Rube Goldberg scheme an armchair academic would concoct, oblivious to political realities? Not at all. The Public Broadcasting Service has quietly embraced Fishkin's idea and plans to televise six to eight hours of excerpts of the exercise during the weekend of Jan. 17-19, a month before the 1992 campaign formally begins with the Iowa caucuses. Named the National Issues Convention, the three-day, $3.5 million conclave in Austin holds the potential to shape the late-starting, who's-running-anyway Democratic race and provide a forum for the Bush Administration to field-test its campaign themes. As Edward Fouhy, executive producer of the PBS broadcast, puts it, "This is the only thing that holds the hope of breaking out of the mold that we -- both journalists and politicians -- have been caught in."

Many of the details are still hazy, but the broad elements of this unprecedented John and Jane Doe convention are in place. The pivotal moment will come in December, when about 600 randomly selected adult Americans will be told they have won the political lottery and are delegates to the National Issues Convention. Will they agree to put aside their normal lives for a weekend and fly all-expenses-paid to Austin? Fishkin is optimistic. "What you're offering these people is three days on national TV, a chance to meet the candidates, a chance to make history, a sunny climate and a reasonable per diem allowance," he says. "For a lot of these people, this will be the most important thing that has ever happened to them."

For the Democratic contenders, whoever they prove to be, the lure will be free TV time and the possibility of gaining credibility by winning the delegates' endorsement. Although Fishkin and the other convention organizers hope the President will make an appearance, they will be satisfied if several Cabinet members attend as Administration surrogates.

What is so beguiling about the National Issues Convention is that no one -- absolutely no one -- has any idea how it will play out. But whatever happens in Austin, the novel event itself will be an affirmation that grass- roots democracy can still flourish in a television age.

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