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At the same time, moderate Republicans in Congress, with their eye on the 1992 elections, are worried that if the court does throw out Roe sometime next year, pro-choice voters will take out their anger at the polls. The safest course for Bush might be for him to unearth another "stealth" nominee like Souter, who has impressive judicial credentials but no paper trail on abortion or other divisive issues. Then the nominee could follow Souter's lead and refuse to discuss how he or she might vote on cases likely to come before the court.
The White House has a short list of candidates that was compiled and updated when Brennan stepped down. Among the names most often mentioned -- all conservative Republicans -- are Clarence Thomas, 43, a black federal appeals judge from Washington; Ricardo Hinojosa, 40, a Mexican-American federal district judge from Texas; and Edith Jones, 41, a white federal appeals judge from Houston. But Bush has a penchant for surprise nominations -- witness his choice of Dan Quayle as a running mate -- and he might indulge it this time.
The last thing the President wants is a brawl with the Judiciary Committee over confirmation. The committee's chemistry is already explosive enough, with such liberals as chairman Joseph Biden and Ted Kennedy squaring off against conservatives Orrin Hatch of Utah and Strom Thurmond of South Carolina on issues like the crime and civil rights bills. "The Democrats aren't beating us anywhere right now, and we want to keep it that way," says a senior White House official. "The President has them beaten in approval ratings. When he vetoes a bill, we're able to sustain it. When he wants to go to war, we're able to force Congress to go along. The only place the Democrats have really been able to hurt us is in the confirmation of appointees, as they did with John Tower. So we'd obviously like to avoid giving them more of that kind of opportunity."
Bush doesn't want a replay of 1987, when Ronald Reagan named Judge Robert Bork in July and then had to wait until after Labor Day for the Judiciary Committee to start confirmation proceedings. The delay gave Bork's critics ample time to study his record and marshal arguments against him. "As long as you're as close as we are, it's better to get the choice made so you don't get a lot of needless lobbying and pressure," Bush declared before heading for Kennebunkport. He clearly implied that he might announce his choice as early as this week.