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With his position newly secured, Gorbachev could begin moving on the steps outlined in his agreement with the nine republics. Critics from both the reformer and traditionalist camps are suggesting, however, that the document papered over so many key disagreements that it may be no more than a tribute to Gorbachev's political sleight of hand. In a speech to the Soviet parliament on Friday, for example, Gorbachev showed no flexibility on the secession issue. Republics that want a "divorce," he said, would have to get it through the laborious process he has insisted on all along. That involves referendums, years of negotiations on financial settlements and finally a vote by the Supreme Soviet.
If the republics hold to their chosen course, it could theoretically lead to a Soviet Union consisting of Russia, the Ukraine, Belorussia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Tadzhikistan, Kirgizia and Turkmenistan. Such a truncated U.S.S.R. would be a poorer, more Asia-oriented country with a large Muslim population. The Kremlin and the Soviet state could no longer be a fiefdom for ethnic Russians.
But even a nine-republic union may be impossible to keep together. Strikes continue to spread, and Nikolai Volkov, a leader of the coal miners' action in Siberia, says the agreement with Gorbachev is "a useless scrap of paper." No matter what the politicians agreed on last week, a large segment of the Soviet working class is still not in the mood for compromise.