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The Big Three are not the only ones tasting failure this fall. Fox, the scrappy fourth network that introduced nine shows this season, has come up with no new winners either. The fall's new syndicated programs -- game shows like The Challengers and Trump Card, magazine shows like Personalities -- are foundering as well. A malaise seems to have gripped the TV audience; viewers are clinging to old favorites, reruns and their trusty remote-control buttons. The No. 1 network show this season is Cheers, now in its ninth season. The top show in syndication is still Wheel of Fortune, which has been around for 16 years.
Explanations for the frustrating fall vary. The Civil War, a surprise ratings hit on PBS, took a big chunk out of the audience for one week. Sunday- night football and other programming on cable have taken another bite. The World Series, one of the few events that can still draw blockbuster audiences to the networks, ended in a disastrous (for CBS as well as the Oakland A's) four-game sweep. Some network executives, meanwhile, contend that a host of scheduling gimmicks and promotional ploys created too much confusion for the viewers. NBC, for example, ran several premier episodes twice, in a gimmick it called double pumping.
And there are those who blame the programming. "The networks have lost audiences because they've lost touch with the American viewer," says Gene DeWitt, who heads a New York media-consulting firm. "They haven't delivered programs that viewers want to watch." To be sure, nothing the networks tried this fall seemed to work: not the "innovative" shows, like Cop Rock and Hull High; not the blatant attempts to court young viewers, like Ferris Bueller and Parker Lewis Can't Lose; not even the slick and usually reliable formula sitcoms, like Lenny and The Fanelli Boys.
Network executives, not surprisingly, dispute these gloomy analyses. Each can point to a series or two that is doing passably in the ratings or a night that has experienced an uptick. CBS entertainment chief Jeff Sagansky insists that it is too soon to write off the fall shows; most network hits, he points out, take a season or two to find their audience. "I don't know of any quality adult shows that exploded out of the gate," he says.
But the fact remains that the audience is fragmenting, network shares are shrinking, and programmers are scrambling to learn the rules of a new, more competitive game. It was probably inevitable. "The norm in any business is competition," says ABC research chief Alan Wurtzel, "so we shouldn't be surprised that as people have more choices, they will use them. People used to watch shows they didn't really like because they had no alternatives. They don't have to do that anymore."
The networks have already made one major adjustment in their strategy. If huge audiences can no longer be expected, the goal is to reach the right audience -- that is, the one that will attract the most ad dollars. The demographic group most in demand among advertisers is adults between 18 and 49. That is why Twin Peaks (which does well among those viewers) is not in danger of cancellation and why the Cosby-Simpsons face-off has produced a split decision. (Cosby is watched by more women 18 to 49; The Simpsons wins among men 18 to 49.)