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To a certain extent, the turmoil that now threatens Indian democracy may be a consequence of its very success. During the 1980s the Indian economy grew at an unprecedented rate of more than 5% a year, largely owing to Rajiv Gandhi's liberalization policies. According to Swaminathan Aiyar, a leading economic analyst with the New Delhi-based Times of India, that growth may have lifted as many as 150 million Indians above the poverty line, reducing from 48% to 29% the portion of the population that is officially poor.
The rush of prosperity spawned entirely new political forces as the expectations of the formerly destitute rose along with their incomes. The Hindu nationalists have managed to ride that social wave, as have parties and movements representing untouchables, farmers and groups like the Yadavs, a low-caste group in north central India. Says Mulayam Singh Yadav, the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh and himself a Yadav: "Before, democracy was only for the powerful. But now real democracy has arrived." Observes a senior government economist: "The poor are organizing themselves as Muslims, as ((ethnic)) Jats, and so on. They want to get their share, to get on the bus to power. It may be chaotic, but Indian democracy is working."
But for how long? The B.J.P. has touched a responsive chord with its calls for a "Hindu Rashtra," or Hindu nation, a society and government centered on respect for Hinduism and in particular Rama. The party's emphasis on depriving minorities, especially Muslims, of special rights such as funding for religious schools and a separate civil code has also tapped a powerful vein of resentment among anxious middle-class Hindus, who feel their interests are being ignored by New Delhi. Indians have taken as well to the party's emphasis on civic virtue and piety. But some leaders are worried that in a polyglot society like theirs, such self-righteous credos can too easily degenerate into cultural intolerance. At B.J.P. rallies, it is not unusual to hear the slogan "The only place for Muslims is the graveyard or Pakistan." Warns a Singh adviser: "We are seeing the Indian face of fascism."
Equally disturbing are signs that Hindu activism is reverberating beyond India's borders. In Bangladesh gangs of Muslims armed with knives or clubs attacked at least 11 Hindu temples in the southern port of Chittagong in retaliation for the Ayodhya assault; hundreds of Hindu homes and shops were burned. Major demonstrations also broke out in several cities in Muslim- dominated Pakistan.
If Singh, who is under mounting pressure to quit from dissidents within his own party, loses the vote of confidence this week, new elections could be called within a few months. The Prime Minister can point to accomplishments in foreign policy, including a peace settlement with Nepal, and such populist but expensive programs as debt relief to farmers and job guarantees for the poor. He can also emphasize his support for "secular" values opposed to what he calls the B.J.P.'s efforts to "lay the foundation stone of a theocratic state."