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But for all their prosperity and, in most cases, munificent welfare arrangements, European countries show few signs of overcoming their traditional social rigidity; one's class, one's prospects in life remain remarkably fixed. European countries are also strongly xenophobic, especially hostile toward immigrants, which could become a major problem for the European Community. Nor is it yet clear whether the Community will continue to be inward-looking or seek a greater global role. It is also far from certain to what extent a Europe guided by the Brussels bureaucracy will be dedicated to vigorous free enterprise and whether it will achieve true political union.
In economic terms, Japan could also be the world leader. But its economy, for all its stunning success, has serious flaws. Much of it is based on absurdly inflated real estate values, lavish subsidies to farmers and artificially low domestic consumption (which is beginning to change slowly).
Japan is even more inflexible socially and politically than Europe. It has largely failed to include women as full members in its economy or society. It is also profoundly xenophobic. Japan has started to play a role in international organizations (its foreign aid is ahead of ours), and it has the third highest defense budget, after the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. But even if it maintains its economic edge, and develops the will to provide political leadership, the rest of the world may have difficulty accepting it in the foreseeable future.
Thus the U.S. should retain its leading role -- but not by the same wide margin. The U.S. effort in the gulf and the international support it rallied show that there are still tasks that only the U.S. is able and willing to undertake. It also shows that the U.S. cannot and should not undertake them alone. In the emerging, decentralized world, no single power will play the kind of predominant part that was possible in the 19th and 20th centuries. It will be an era of diffused power. In his book Bound to Lead, political scientist Joseph Nye Jr. speaks of "soft" or "co-optive" power, that is, indirect means of influence: winning others over through one's ideas or acting in concert with allies and through international organizations.
In the early years of the Republic, it was widely believed the best, if not the only, way for America to influence the rest of the world was by the power of its example. That "light unto the nations" view was later ridiculed, but it has regained the force of simple truth. The example of a tremendously successful American economy and free institutions contributed strongly to the downfall of communism and to the movement toward market economies and democracy all over the world.
So a Second American Century will require the U.S. to retain and greatly improve its role as an example.
Look around America. Observe, even in New York City, alongside the decay and decline, the irrepressible drive, the jackhammer energy, the ambition as high as the builders' cranes, the opportunities as exciting as the turbulent street scenes.