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For that reason Saddam is not likely to do anything that would jeopardize his standing either in Iraq or in the Middle East. Many Western analysts believe Saddam would not be so foolish as to initiate a first strike against Israel, a move that would invite only his destruction. At the same time, they warn that he is capable of vicious retaliation and caution against attempts to isolate him, which might provoke his use of outlawed weapons.
The U.S. Administration and Middle East moderates, including Egypt's Hosni Mubarak and Jordan's King Hussein, feel that the best antidote to Saddam's potential barbarity is to keep him engaged in dialogue. In November 1988 the U.S. used quiet diplomacy to extract from Saddam a promise that he would not be first, in future, to use chemical weapons. Despite his confrontational tone in Baghdad last week, Saddam signed on to a watered-down communique that fell short of his call for oil sanctions against the U.S. That was only a minor victory for the region's moderates, who have much to fear from Saddam's breed of radicalism. But it provided some encouragement that as long as they can keep Saddam talking, there is hope of persuading him to pursue a more reasonable course.