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Back in Ulster, Tom King, Britain's Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, defended the Carrickmore ambush killings of the latest three I.R.A. victims. "The security forces responded in a very effective way," he insisted. "This was a particularly nasty murder gang." The I.R.A. has admitted that the three, heavily armed and wearing jump suits and the sinister-looking hoods known as balaclavas, were on "active service" when the SAS cut them down in a hail of bullets. In Britain the ambush was applauded as the first stage in a more aggressive campaign by the government against the I.R.A. Thatcher said the recent upsurge in violence "strengthens our resolve," and added, "Terrorism is a form of tyranny. You can never let it win."
British security officials say the I.R.A. has amassed an awesome arsenal. It reportedly includes more than ten tons of Semtex, a powerful, difficult-to- detect plastic explosive made in Czechoslovakia; a dozen or more Soviet- made SA-7 surface-to-air missiles; crates of grenades and grenade launchers; and at least 50 heavy machine guns. The weaponry arrived in three shipments by sea from Libya between 1984 and 1986 and was hidden in the Republic of Ireland and Ulster.
Philosophically, the I.R.A.'s goal remains unchanged: forcing Britain to withdraw its troops from Ulster's six counties. As the I.R.A. sees it, ending the "occupation" would lead to reunification with the 26 counties of the South and a new Ireland under a socialist government. To further their cause, the guerrillas now specifically target British soldiers: ten were killed in 1987, and 31 already this year.
In contrast to the 30,000-strong British security forces, there are probably no more than 150 full-time activist I.R.A. "volunteers," or regulars, backed by some 800 supporters who provide intelligence and safe houses. Fighting units are divided into tiny cells of three or four volunteers who operate independently, under general policy directives that are transmitted with excruciating care via long-time, trusted confidants.
Politically, the I.R.A. has not fared well lately and operates from a narrow base. In elections in the Irish Republic last year, Sinn Fein, the political arm of the I.R.A., pulled only 1.9% of the vote and failed to win a seat in the Dail (parliament). In Britain's 1987 general election, Sinn Fein won less than 12% of the ballots cast in Northern Ireland.
The I.R.A. faces other problems. The tragically mistaken deaths on Aug. 31 of Sean Dalton, a 55-year-old taxi driver, and Sheila Lewis, a 60-year-old widow, who were blown up when they went to check on the apartment of a friend in Derry, were a worse blow to the guerrillas than the loss of gunmen. The deaths of innocent victims horrifies moderates among the Northern Irish Catholics whom the I.R.A. claims it wants to emancipate.