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In their defense, the Crisis trio argue that it is up to the medical community to prove them wrong. As a practical matter, however, scientists cannot prove that something will never happen. Even so, in a dozen studies conducted on some 500 people living with AIDS-infected relatives, not a single case of casual transmission has occurred, even though they shared toothbrushes, toilets, cups, plates, toys and bed linens. "They've created a straw man," says CDC's Curran. "Let them prove that it is true."
The current furor, says Bernie Zilbergeld, an Oakland psychologist and longtime critic of Masters and Johnson, stems from what he terms their "chronic inability to be precise." For example, he asks, how do they know that their 400 nonmonogamous study subjects were not bisexuals or IV drug abusers? Epidemiologists long ago learned that people often admit to risky behavior only after they have been told they test positive. Yet Masters and Johnson did not extensively question their subjects about high-risk behavior.
"They could have done a great service by concentrating on present-day sexual habits rather than the epidemiology of AIDS," says New York's Joseph. "We need in-depth, scientifically obtained knowledge about sexual behavior these days." Studies have consistently shown that heterosexuals at high risk and their partners frequently resist practicing safer sex even though they know the consequences. Research by Masters and Johnson in their own area of expertise, he argues, could have produced effective ways to motivate the recalcitrant.
For now, the danger is that the furor will divert attention and resources from the real heterosexual epidemic -- the one raging in the inner city among IV drug abusers, their sexual partners and children. The alarmist prophecies promoted in Crisis may discredit ongoing efforts to control the disease. "This plants the seeds of distrust in a group that the public should be able to look to for answers," argues Mervyn Silverman, former San Francisco public health director. Crying wolf, as Masters and Johnson have done, is no way to fight an epidemic.