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The new spirit of cooperation arose with the signing of the historic Anglo- Irish accord in 1985. As a result of the agreement, Dublin now has a say in the affairs of Ulster, while recognizing that British sovereignty in the province can be changed only through democratic means. Recently the Republic has sought to intercept clandestine arms shipments into both north and south. In November 7,000 Irish troops and police launched Operation Mallard, an extensive search through 50,000 homes near the border and in large cities like Dublin. The haul: four I.R.A. fugitives and a cache of 22 rifles, 15 revolvers, 13 shotguns, 4,000 rounds of ammunition and 25 bombs. They also found three I.R.A. underground bunkers, one of them as big as a house and equipped with electricity and ventilation. Early last month the Irish ratified a European treaty that should make it easier for Britain to request the extradition of suspected terrorists.
Fearing Dublin's interference, Protestants heatedly condemned the Anglo- Irish accord. Passions cooled as Britain firmly defended the treaty, and the Republic's influence did not grow as much as anticipated. Still, Protestants continue to oppose the treaty and have met with the government of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher six times in the past six months to negotiate an alternative to it. London is skeptical there will be one. Says a British official: "Mrs. Thatcher believes 200% that they cannot come up with an acceptable offer."
Despite police worries, the atmosphere in the provincial capital of Belfast is more relaxed than it has been for years. The city's bars and restaurants are thriving. During the holidays, a Protestant banner opposing the Anglo- Irish accord was altered from BELFAST SAYS NO to BELFAST SAYS NOEL. The province as a whole seems less tense. Unemployment is at 17.6%, down from almost 20% a year ago. British troops are visible only in the 15% of Northern Ireland where the I.R.A. is most dangerous. Aside from the bandit country, these areas include West Belfast and sections of Londonderry, where pro- terrorist graffiti are a common sight.
Perhaps because of the relative calm, seasoned terrorism experts in Belfast fear a fresh outbreak of violence. They know that the I.R.A. is deeply frustrated after nearly 20 years of fighting without achieving its main objective, British withdrawal. As the outrage shared by Catholics and Protestants alike over Enniskillen starts to fade, a new offensive could be in the works. "People are beginning to say that it hasn't changed a damn thing," says Ken Maginnis, Westminster M.P. for Fermanagh and South Tyrone, which includes Enniskillen. "Deep down, the mistrust between the two communities is still there." Says a Catholic parish priest in Belfast: "Every time there is a consensus, the I.R.A. delivers a reminder that it still has a vicious bite." And so Ulster watches and waits.