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Despite a continuing flow of arms from Moscow, Western diplomats suspect that the Soviets are not happy with their ally. When Mengistu visited Moscow in April, Soviet Leader Mikhail Gorbachev cautioned him to "proceed from realities and not outrun stages of development." Politburo Member Lev Zaikov was reportedly blunter when he visited Addis Ababa in September.
Last Saturday the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), which has been monitoring the drought situation from the start, issued a new report that increased the projected food need for 1988 from 950,000 tons to 1.3 million tons. So far, 550,000 tons have been promised by aid groups, or 42% of what will be needed. Michael Priestley, the U.N. official who coordinates the overall relief program in Ethiopia, stresses that more aid must be committed immediately. "It will take five months for a food shipment to get here if it ) is pledged this week," he said. "If we don't get the pledges now, there will be a break in the pipeline."
Forty-two thousand tons of food are currently in Ethiopia, with shipments arriving daily. By the end of this month, an additional 90,000 tons are expected, thus ensuring Ethiopia enough food through Christmas if some of the hungry are put on three-quarter rations. Relief workers are racing to distribute food. Rebel attacks and logistical problems have cost valuable time, however, and in the past few days the pace has quickened. Last week three transport planes left Europe for Ethiopia and are now airlifting food from Asmara, near the Red Sea port of Assab, to Mekele. The European Community, which organized the operation, eventually hopes to deploy ten planes. "The airlift is vital," says Priestley. "But 700,000 people in Tigre need food immediately, and the aircraft must be backed up by trucks. If we don't start widespread distribution, there will be famine camps."
FAO officials are also sounding the alarm. "In terms of organization, we are better equipped this time," says Peter Newhouse, a senior FAO economist. "But if donation decisions are not made immediately, and it's not raining in Ethiopia by March, then we are in trouble. We will move from a disaster to a catastrophe."
The tragedy that afflicts Ethiopia also plagues much of Africa. The belt of privation cuts a ragged T through the continent. The horizontal bar is made up of the famine-prone nations of the Sahel; the vertical bar extends from the Sudan down through Uganda, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique and into tiny Lesotho. To the west of this scythe of hunger lie Zaire and Angola.
The worst threat of famine is in war-torn countries and their neighbors. Sudan, for example, is home to about 975,000 refugees, 70% from Ethiopia and the rest from Uganda, Zaire and Chad. While traditionally gracious hosts to those in need, the Sudanese are also enduring a drought and are rapidly losing patience. Earlier this year Ethiopian refugees streaming into the Sudanese border town of Kassala were attacked by mobs. "We have been involved in refugee problems since the Congo crisis of the 1960s," says Al-Amin Abdul Latif, Sudan's Ambassador to Egypt. "Enough is enough."