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The biggest questions are what kinds of computers will be used and where they will come from. Personal computers first appeared in the U.S. in the mid 1970s, but the Soviets did not produce one until 1983. That maiden model, called the Agat, a shortened form of the name Agatha, is a crude copy of the Apple II, one of the first personal computers sold in the U.S.
The Soviets have yet to produce the Agat in large quantities, and its quality is still suspect. Leo Bores, an eye surgeon and computer buff from Scottsdale, Ariz., tried out the Agat on a visit to the Soviet Union and wrote about his findings in last November's Byte magazine. Bores, who facetiously dubbed Agat the Yabloko (Russian for apple), discovered that the Soviet machine performs some tasks 30% slower than an Apple. The Soviets would not be able to export Agat to the West, he says, "even if they gave it away." Stephen Bryen, a top Defense Department expert on technology trade, claims that the disk drive on the Agat often breaks down.
Afansy Kuznetsov, a leading Soviet educator, last week revealed the existence of a new personal-computer model called the Timur in honor of a character in children's literature. A few of the Timurs have been tried out at schools in Moscow and Novosibirsk. Says an official in the Soviet Ministry of Education: "The trial of the Timur showed that the make was suitable for the education process, but some improvement was needed." Western computer specialists have not yet had much chance to evaluate the Timur.
Soviet officials plan to use both the Agat and Timur in the high school computer program, but they are apparently concerned about being able to produce enough machines for its students. As a result, the Soviets may buy thousands of Western-made ones. In January the U.S. Government loosened slightly its restrictions on computer exports to the Soviet Union. The new rules will allow shipment of relatively less powerful personal computers, such as the Apple II and the IBM PC. Since that change, the Soviets have held preliminary talks with IBM, Apple and Commodore International and with other companies in Britain, France, West Germany and Japan. Says Apple President John Sculley: "We don't have anything yet to be excited about, but we're excited about the possibility." Commodore says it expects to begin serious negotiations with the Soviets next month. "The market is there," says George Dolan, a Commerce Department official based in San Francisco. "The exporters are ready."
Western companies were invited to show off their personal computers and other educational equipment at a trade fair held for nine days last January in the center of Moscow. Among the 50 firms that mounted displays were Britain's Quest Automation and Sinclair Ltd.; no U.S. makers were represented. The fair was a hit with Muscovites, who paid 50 kopecks (about 75 cents) for tickets and crowded into a pavilion that was blinking brightly with video screens. Computers were also on prominent display at a Moscow robotics trade fair in February.