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Although it may have seemed unlikely, there was suspicion that former President Ferdinand Marcos, 69, now living in Hawaii, had a hand in the plot. In July U.S. officials revealed they had squelched a Marcos plan to buy an estimated $25 million in weapons for a coup attempt. Marcos said of last week's affair, "We are not involved," though he added that he hoped Aquino was toppled and he would gladly accept an invitation to return. No such request came from the rebels.
The midnight coup was not the first event to disturb Aquino's sleep last week. Two days earlier the President provoked a general strike by leftist and conservative trade unions, angry over a recently announced hike in gasoline prices, from $1.24 to $1.49 per gal. In a country where the average annual income is barely $600 a year, the increase was stunning. Though Aquino finally declared a partial rollback of the hike, thousands of Filipinos walked off their jobs and out of their classrooms in the largest show of protest since Aquino assumed the presidency. After the strike went into a second day, the military cracked down, arresting more than 120 labor activists. Several union leaders have been charged with sedition. Others have gone into hiding.
The President's public support has been further eroded by her proposed land- reform measures, currently being debated in the legislature. The plans would redistribute an unspecified amount of acreage among the country's 8 million landless peasants. Landowners have vowed not to relinquish their farms, and peasant organizations say the measures are vague and likely to be watered down by the legislature, which includes many landowners.
The President has, of course, had her share of successes. In a referendum last February, her democratic constitution was approved by 76% of the voters. Her candidates swept legislative elections last May. Economic growth for the first quarter of 1987 was a healthy 5.5%, after two years of recession under Marcos. The stock market is soaring, and foreigners are again investing in the country.
But such attainments are threatened by the government's precarious military situation. The Communist New People's Army now claims to have 24,000 guerrilla fighters, and its assassination squads, known as Sparrow units, have moved freely through the capital, killing an estimated 25 policemen in the metropolitan area so far this year.
Aquino's reluctance to unleash the military against the Communist insurgents has generated deep resentment among many professional officers. The malcontents feel that Aquino is more interested in negotiating with the guerrillas than in defeating them. Most recently she annoyed the military by extending a rebel amnesty program by six months. Many soldiers fear that the Communist insurgency and Aquino's dithering over such matters as land reform and gasoline prices are pushing the country to the brink of anarchy.