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With Panama in turmoil and U.S.-Panamanian relations at their lowest ebb since the rancorous canal negotiations, the outcome is anything but certain. A Philippines-style ending, with Noriega slinking into premature retirement, seems unlikely at this point. The U.S. has far less leverage over the general than it did over Ferdinand Marcos, since Panama receives significantly less U.S. aid and its service-based economy is in relatively healthy condition, although some nervous bankers have recently withdrawn funds. Panama's opposition is largely fragmented and directionless, unlike its counterpart in South Korea.
Noriega's continued rule troubles the Reagan Administration for two reasons. First, the White House justifies its support for the contra rebels primarily by pointing to Nicaragua's lack of democracy. Administration credibility would suffer if the U.S. appeared to be too cozy with dictators. Second, Noriega's attempts to whip up anti-American sentiment and to court countries hostile to the U.S. raise worries about the Panama Canal's future. "Can you imagine what it would be like to have the canal in the hands of a Lebanon-like country?"asks a U.S. official. Whatever pressure the U.S. decides to bring, one thing is evident. Says Gabriel Lewis Galindo, a former Panamanian diplomat who heads the opposition's lobbying effort in Washington: "There will be no peace in Panama as long as Noriega is in power."