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Gorbachev, who has had no direct military experience, has been cautious about asserting his authority over the Soviet high command, which has a history of friction with the party leadership that extends beyond the Zhukov affair. Says Malcolm MacIntosh, senior consultant on Soviet affairs at London's International Institute for Strategic Studies: "Gorbachev realized that with his other priorities -- shaking up the party, modernizing the economy and imposing governmental reforms -- he could not take on the military as well. Hence he reached a modus vivendi with them that allowed them to retain most of their power." Now, by installing as Defense Minister a relatively obscure commander who owes his rapid rise entirely to Gorbachev, the Soviet leader is clearly seeking to assert a much higher level of personal command.
What Gorbachev is doing beyond that is less certain. One school of speculation holds that he will use his enhanced authority over the military to bolster his position in the Politburo. "The preliminary view is that this & will strengthen Gorbachev's hand," says a State Department official in Washington. "It would appear to solidify his majority status in the decision- making elite." But other analysts surmised that by choosing a less prominent candidate for Defense Minister, Gorbachev is seeking to reduce permanently the status of the military, which he is thought to regard as a rapacious consumer of Soviet resources. Says a Western diplomat in Moscow: "It appears that as far as the military goes, Gorbachev can spit in their faces and walk away without fearing, for now, that he will get knifed in the back. It was a most convincing display of authority."
One early indication of Gorbachev's intentions could come sometime later this month, when he is scheduled to preside over a twice-yearly plenum of the Communist Party's Central Committee. The ousted Sokolov is expected at that time to resign his position as a nonvoting member of the Politburo. If Yazov, who currently holds nonvoting status on the less powerful Central Committee, replaces him or wins a voting position on the Politburo, that will be seen as a sure sign that Gorbachev wants to keep a military leader at the top of the political hierarchy. If Yazov is not rewarded with a Politburo position of any kind, Soviet military brass will just as clearly be viewed as having lost some of their polish.
What still remains unknown in the whole drama is the cause of such a spectacular lapse in the abundant layers of the Soviet air-defense system. Western military observers accept Soviet claims that Rust's flight was detected on radar and spotted by interceptor jets. Those aircraft, which cruise at around 500 m.p.h., may have had trouble keeping track of a Cessna probably flying low at no more than 130 m.p.h. But Soviet authorities could easily have called out helicopters and forced the Cessna to land. Instead, they either mistook the intruder for a Soviet aircraft -- though it bore a painted West German flag -- or for some other reason decided not to attempt interference.