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Another problem is the deficit's intractability. During the past 15 years, the U.S. has had successive trade crises with the Japanese as the archipelagic powerhouse has conquered world markets in textiles, television sets, steel and automobiles. In each case, the problem was supposedly solved by the imposition of controls on Japanese exports to the U.S. But the imbalance has become worse, creating a climate -- at least in Washington -- that threatens to undercut the much broader mutuality of interest that binds the U.S. and Japan. Says an Administration official: "It really is a problem of perception. The Japanese are seen as being unfair."
That is not the Japanese view. As concern over the U.S. trade deficit has grown, Nakasone has taken the lead in trying to persuade his countrymen to become more energetic consumers, especially of foreign goods, in the interests of averting a trade war. The Prime Minister two years ago made an unprecedented appearance on national television to underscore that appeal. He then went on a highly publicized expedition to buy foreign goods in Tokyo. At that time he also announced relaxations in the maze of bureaucratic regulations that often seem to make the Japanese market impenetrable to foreign competition.
Nakasone's efforts at liberalization, though, have had little effect on U.S.-Japanese trade figures. Indeed, most economists estimate that if all protectionist barriers in Japan were removed at a stroke, Japanese imports would increase by only $8 billion to $15 billion.
The factor that has had the greatest single impact on Japanese trade is the skyrocketing value of the yen, which has risen 60% against the U.S. dollar since September 1985. The steep rise in the yen has helped push the Japanese economy into a trough. The change in currency value was expected to help correct the trade imbalance by making U.S. exports to Japan cheaper and Japanese exports to the U.S. more expensive. Finally, after long and frustrating delays, there are signs that such changes are slowly coming about. The Japanese claim their U.S. imports last year rose by almost 24%. When special circumstances are subtracted (notably, a $2.5 billion purchase of gold for coins commemorating Emperor Hirohito's 60 years of rule), the figure is more like 4.8%. But at the same time, global Japanese exports declined in volume by 1.3%.
There are additional reasons why the current semiconductor confrontation has more powerful significance than previous trade squabbles. One is the importance of the microchips -- finely etched electronic devices that process thousands of bits of information per second -- to the burgeoning world of high tech. Semiconductors are now used in virtually every advanced technology, including the Cray supercomputers that are a key component of the Reagan Administration's Strategic Defense Initiative. Says C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Washington-based Institute for International Economics: "Practically everyone in the U.S. agrees that semiconductors is a critical industry and that it would be dangerous, both to the economy and to national security, to lose it."