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Officials in Washington downplayed Iran's successes and described the military situation around Basra as stable. Said U.S. State Department Deputy Spokeswoman Phyllis Oakley: "We do not believe Basra is in imminent danger of falling. The Iraqis possess a great advantage in equipment and are committed to defending their territory." Other observers say the Iranian thrust toward Basra has placed an even heavier strain than usual on Iran's economy and its reserves of weapons. But none anticipate any lessening of Tehran's resolve as long as there is a chance Basra can be taken.
Iraq's Arab neighbors have been monitoring the fighting with concern. Iraqi spokesmen believe that if Basra falls, the Ayatullah will declare the creation of an Iranian-style Islamic republic in the predominantly Shi'ite area around the city. Khomeini, however, has never publicly declared that goal, and some analysts think the tactic would backfire by arousing fear among neighboring states about Iranian territorial ambitions. In an effort to reassure U.S. allies in the gulf, President Reagan last week declared, "We would regard any such expansion of the war as a major threat to our interests, as well as to those of our friends in the region."
Iranian strategists, for their part, hope that the fall of Basra leads to | the destruction of the Iraqi war machine, and thus the downfall of its leader. But the Iraqi President, who has led his country for seven years, seems determined to win a military victory over Iran. Most observers believe the Baghdad government would collapse only if Saddam's military commanders concluded that he had unsuccessfully prosecuted the war against Iran. Even then, any successor from the ranks of the Iraqi military would probably be more aggressive toward Iran.
The Iraqi leader will have the opportunity to seek the sympathy of other Arab leaders this week at the fifth Islamic summit meeting in Kuwait. But shows of support will be unlikely to influence Tehran, which has already issued a statement declaring that any resolution approved at the summit will not be "legally binding." The Iranians have vowed to continue the war until Iraq is crushed. Given that resolve, the siege of Basra is almost certainly only a prelude to bigger and bloodier battles to come.
CHART: THE BATTLE LINE
Credit: TIME Diagram by Joe Lertola
Caption: Iranian forces attempted to close in on Basra, while Iraqi troops battled to stop them. Neither side made a breakthrough.
Description: Color: Diagram of battle for Basra.