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In recent months Moscow and Peking have agreed to resume consular relations and have stepped up cross-border trade, marking the most significant movement in Sino-Soviet relations since Gorbachev's rise to power 20 months ago. Moreover, there are tentative signs of improvement on another source of dispute, Soviet support for the Vietnamese occupation of Kampuchea. Two weeks ago, when a senior Soviet-bloc diplomat was asked in Peking if Moscow might reduce aid to Viet Nam, he responded, "There is always the possibility of adjusting programs that might not work." Still, Peking is wary. Says a Chinese journalist in Moscow: "Gorbachev has not taken a step forward. He has merely lifted his foot." The Japanese, too, are cautious. Soviet efforts to warm relations began last January, when Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze traveled to Tokyo. Since then, Moscow has wooed Tokyo with diplomatic concessions and hints of a Gorbachev visit, perhaps as early as January. In Vladivostok, Gorbachev pointedly called for "profound cooperation" between Moscow and Tokyo. Japan has the technology Moscow needs to awaken the sluggish Soviet economy and develop gas and oil deposits in the Soviet Far East.
But more will be needed to warm Moscow-Tokyo relations. The two countries, which never signed a peace treaty after World War II, have been at odds over the four northern islands off Hokkaido, where the Soviets have 10,000 troops and 40 advanced MiG-23s. Sovereignty over the islands, occupied by the Soviets at the end of the war, remains a highly divisive issue. Last August there was a modest breakthrough when the Kremlin allowed a group of Japanese to visit their relatives' graves on two of the islands without first obtaining visas. But the Japanese are not overly impressed. "So far," says a Japanese Foreign Ministry official, "it's been an atmospheric change."
Atmospheric changes, however, can become important. "The point is that the Soviets are just beginning to move into the area," says a Moscow-based Western diplomat. "The important thing is for America to behave well and not allow the Soviets to increase their presence." Toward that end, Washington is watching Soviet moves closely. Warns one senior State Department official: "Ours is the position to lose."