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The economic recovery is undoubtedly the chief reason for Reagan's popularity now--that and the absence of war and the general atmosphere of national self-confidence. The process was painful. Midway through his first term, the New York Times wrote in an editorial, "The stench of failure hangs over Ronald Reagan's White House." Almost 11 1/2 million people were out of work. Reagan's approval rating in the polls fell to 37%. Pushing huge military budgets while cutting social programs created the "fairness issue." The idea of Reagan as a superlatively nice guy was not always operative during the first term.
Reagan's greatest failure involves the huge federal debt, now $2 trillion, half of it accumulated during the Reagan years. He administered a deep tax cut during an enormous military buildup. Tens of thousands of family farmers have been destroyed, and the economy of the Midwest has been badly shaken.
He lost the Marines in the barracks in Beirut. Scandals--the "sleaze factor"--shadow the White House and Cabinet. And Reagan committed so many press-conference fluffs and bumbles and misstatements and fantasies wrapped in anecdotes that eventually no one paid that much attention anymore, assuming that that was just the way Reagan was. Who cared? The results seemed to come out all right.
During the late 19th century, Henry Adams despaired of the quality of American leadership. "The progress of evolution from President Washington to President Grant," he wrote, "was alone evidence to disprove Darwin." What would Adams have had to say about evolution in the office from Thomas Jefferson, say, to Ronald Reagan?
Reagan's reassertion of presidential leadership will undoubtedly be regarded as one of his most important contributions to the presidency. And yet there seems now a certain inadequacy about the Reagan magic. Other than tax reform, Reagan has not exploited his popularity to push for new initiatives so far in his second term. As the nation begins to show signs of yearning for a more generous social vision, as the Reagan prosperity prompts a renewed concern for the have-nots both at home and abroad, Reagan sometimes seems behind the wave, exalting individualism rather than a more lasting sense of altruism. There are time bombs for which Reagan has responsibility. The nation's debt service alone consumes $140 billion a year, or 14% of the budget, roughly twice the percentage of a decade ago.
After the November elections, the scramble for the 1988 election will begin. Reagan has been too strong a figure in the past six years to be relegated soon to the status of a lame duck. But his time is receding. Perhaps the Reagan era is to be remembered simply as a quietus. Perhaps it is the illusion of a long summer celebration of the past, an illusion necessary before the future can begin.
And yet Reagan's significance is larger than that. He has restored the authority of the American presidency. He has given Americans an optimism, a pride in themselves and in their country that they have not possessed since the death of John Kennedy. And he is the first President since F.D.R. to alter the debate over what the role of government should be. As one keeps score in the art of the possible, that is not bad at all.