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The possible role of Libyan Leader Muammar Gaddafi in the latest attack is more difficult to prove. After the TWA bombing, Gaddafi declared, "This is an act of terrorism against a civilian target, and I'm totally against it." President Reagan condemned the bombing as a "barbaric act of wanton international terrorism," and an Administration official described the TWA attack, as well as the Berlin nightclub bombing, as part of an anti-U.S. "master plan" that was "backed by Gaddafi." The official claimed that, under this plan, 30 U.S. diplomatic missions and 50 American diplomats have been targeted for assault since Jan. 1.
The U.S. assumption is that, while Gaddafi knows he cannot compete militarily with the Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean, he can continue to exploit surrogates like Abu Nidal, whom he supports and encourages. As a Western diplomat in Libya said two weeks ago, "The renegade Palestinians are an obvious source of men and know-how. They don't cost very much to finance, and it is very difficult to trace any links back to Libya."
For the terrorists, the direct benefits of such actions as the TWA bombing are the killing of Americans and the attendant notoriety. Among the indirect benefits is the damage caused to moderate Arab governments and to U.S. allies in Europe. Already, tens of thousands of Americans have decided to avoid air travel to the Mediterranean this summer, and some are determined to stay away from Europe altogether. The result is a serious drop in tourism for Italy and Greece, among other countries, and a deepening of the economic crisis in Egypt. Abu Nidal and his allies would like nothing better than to see President Hosni Mubarak replaced by a radical government that would abrogate the Camp David accords and renew the state of war between Egypt and Israel. "Let us not forget that their ultimate goal is a Palestinian state in what is now Israel," a Western diplomat in Cairo remarked last week. "But to get there, they are prepared to blow up the Middle East."