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The three U.S. agencies that regulate banks--the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation--said last week that they plan to ask Congress to relax laws that prohibit interstate banking. Reason: the regulators have begun preparing contingency rescue plans in which several big-city banks would stand ready to take over faltering institutions in the oil patch.
The main long-term danger to the U.S. is increased reliance on foreign oil. Many business leaders and politicians have taken note that ultralow oil prices are threatening to stunt domestic production. Gerald Greenwald, vice chairman of Chrysler, sees the peril of another oil shock. Says he: "We've been burned twice before, and we see the elements of No. 3 taking shape."
The concern is that low prices have erased the profit margins of many U.S. producers, forcing them to shut down their wells. While Persian Gulf countries can pump oil for less than $5 per bbl., many U.S. wells cost $12 or more per bbl. to operate because much of the easily accessible crude has already been tapped. Some oil analysts believe that one goal of the Saudi price-war strategy is to bankrupt many of these high-cost producers, wipe out the glut and then boost prices once again when the competition is gone. Most forecasters think that oil prices below $10 per bbl. are a distortion caused by OPEC's overproduction and cannot last for long.
In the meantime, though, the unnaturally low prices can cause plenty of havoc. Small U.S. oil companies have already shut down thousands of so-called stripper wells, which individually produce fewer than 10 bbl. a day but collectively supply the U.S. with about 15% of its total production of 9 million bbl. a day. If most of those wells close, the country could lose a sizable portion of its reserves. Says Allan Martini, a senior vice president at Chevron: "Once some old wells stop pumping, it's almost impossible to get them producing again. It isn't a question of turning the tap off and bringing it back later." The U.S. can ill afford to give up reserves, since it holds only 4% of the world's known supply, in contrast to about 55% in the Middle East.
The odds of finding more oil are declining at the moment because tumbling prices have forced oil companies to slash their exploration and drilling budgets. Last week Ohio-based Standard Oil said that it will spend only about $450 million this year looking for crude, a 50% cut from 1985. The cutbacks affect not only the U.S., but also the allies from which it buys oil. In Britain's offshore fields, observes Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, "concern is starting to center on a spending slowdown that could leave the North Sea industry ill equipped to pick up again."
The oil bust has spoiled the economics of alternative energy sources as well. Many of the ballyhooed 1970s-era programs to extract petroleum from oil shale and tar sands have been mothballed because they cost too much to operate. The hundreds of mom-and-pop solar-power companies that sprang up in the past decade have mostly folded, even in the Sunbelt. Says Susan deWitt, executive director for the California Solar Energy Industries Association: "Our customers no longer feel the urgency to pursue renewable energy." The U.S. is not alone in that regard. Brazil's innovative alcohol-fuel program will be cut back 13% this year.