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Before the Aquino government can carry out a new economic program, however, it will have to stabilize the political situation. Aquino will have to neutralize remaining Marcos loyalists in the K.B.L., particularly the party bosses in rural areas, who rule their fiefs like medieval warlords. One group she probably will not have to worry about, for the moment at least, is the left, which seemed genuinely stunned by her success. Bayan, a federation of 1,000 "cause-oriented" groups, joined the outlawed National Democratic Front, the Communist Party's political arm, in boycotting the election. Last week the N.D.F. criticized Aquino's Cabinet choices but admitted in a press statement that the ouster of Marcos was a "significant victory in the Filipino people's struggle for genuine democracy and national independence." Bayan announced that it planned to play a "watchdog" role, apparently without sabotaging Aquino's efforts. But it was not lost on Bayan leaders that their absence from the Aquino campaign rules out a share of the spoils. Said one: "If we had participated, we could have easily meshed with Cory's organization."
The Aquino triumph is a setback, however temporary, for the Communist guerrillas in the New People's Army, whose numbers are estimated at between 16,500 and 20,000 armed men. Its strength, according to Pentagon officials, has grown 20% annually since 1983, when Aquino's husband was assassinated. During the campaign, Aquino often said that Marcos, who sought a military solution to the insurgency problem, was the N.P.A.'s best recruiter. Her hope is to eradicate the poverty and discontent on which the Communists build to promote their cause. "The N.P.A. sees that people are not willing to embrace any kind of repressive regime, whether from the left or the right," says Enrile. "Filipinos want a centrist, liberal, democratic person in government."
In this spirit, Aquino reiterated her campaign pledge last week to call a six-month cease-fire in the war against the N.P.A., which caused more than 1,200 civilian deaths in 1985. If the guerrillas would disavow violence, she declared, she would offer them amnesty. Said Laurel: "Given a credible government, a democratic moral order and a general amnesty, 90% of the people who are now fighting in the hills would lay down their arms and come home." In Washington, some Philippine experts dismissed such talk as naive. "Their plan seems unrealistic," said Larry Niksch, director of Asian affairs at the Congressional Research Service. "It will take the government a long, determined and very sophisticated effort to deal with the insurgency." Added one Western diplomat: "Aquino's success undoubtedly weakens the Communists' appeal to the so-called mass base. But one swallow does not a summer make." Unquestionably, Aquino's policy is a gamble. If she fails to make visible progress against economic problems, it is possible, even likely, that the insurgency will grow.